Cattle imports start 2012 higher, expected to tighten into 2013

Cattle imports through the first half of the year were 22 percent higher than a year ago. Imports are higher from both Mexico (up 31 percent) and Canada (up 6 percent). Feeder cattle have been pulled from both borders, as the increase in Canadian cattle imports also has been feeders. According to AMS weekly reports, Canadian feeder cattle imports were 78 percent higher through July, year over year. As total North American inventories are constrained, however, we should expect to see total cattle import numbers trend downward. In Mexico, the wet season weather pattern now in play will decrease some of the cattle numbers crossing the border. Weather conditions, and thus grazing options, this fall will also determine the extent to which cattle import numbers from Mexico seasonally spike. However, imports from Mexico have been at relatively higher levels, compared with inventory, for the past few years and into 2013 total exportable supply may become an increasingly important factor for U.S. cattle imports from Mexico. Total U.S. cattle imports are forecast at 2.175 million head for 2012 and at 2 million head for 2013.

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