Schwieterman: Cash confidence lifts live cattle futures

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Corn                                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                        Net Long Futures and Options: 28527
Long Term: Up                         Change: +10000
Overnight Trade: N -2 Z -3 @7:30 AM


The July corn is still struggling with the resistance at the $6.69 area and the December corn ran into overhead resistance at the $5.68 area yesterday. There has been some bull spreading overnight, but it is minor in comparison to the bear spreading yesterday. The basis levels around the country were no worse than mixed yesterday, which should allow the bull spreaders to reassert themselves soon. The key will be the $6.69 resistance in the July contract.

Wheat                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: -61732
Long Term: Down                      Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -7 KC: N -7 @7:30 AM


The July KW is following trend line resistance lower. So far we have 4 consecutive lower highs. Nobody cares about the crop size and it has been several days since we had fresh demand news. Not even the strength in the December corn has been able to help the wheat. I fear that if the corn runs out of upward momentum, it will get really bad for the wheat. $7.30 is critical support.

Soybeans                                     Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                           Net Long Futures and Options: 67957
Long Term:Up                             Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: N -3 X -3 @7:30 AM


The soybeans are in consolidation mode. I look for the July soybeans to trade between the $14.80 and $15.25 levels for several days. Basis levels showed improvement yesterday, which will take away some ammunition from the bears, but technical traders will still be looking at last week’s action as very negative. Look for directionless trade for the time being.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed moderately to sharply higher on Wednesday, with higher cutouts and renewed cash confidence leading to additional short covering. Overnight action saw the June contract trade above the 50 day moving average for the first time since May 5th. If cash is going to trade today, we suspect that packers will have to raise bids to at least steady money with a week ago. Asking prices in most regions are firm in the $126- $127 area, with northern cattle priced between $203 and $205 in the beef.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 10-30 Higher


Feeder cattle futures managed to close modestly higher on Wednesday, in spite of the double digit gains in the new crop corn futures. Improving pasture conditions should provide fresh competition for the large calf and small yearling market. Overnight corn prices are mostly lower, which should provide some support if fats hold on to their positive start. Short term technical indicators are turning up on the August feeders.



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