Schwieterman: Cattle futures higher Thursday

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Corn                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Up             Net Long Futures and Options: -181958
Long Term: Down          Change: -7000
Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM


The March corn managed a mid-range close yesterday, but is seeing follow through selling this morning. The market has stalled out just below the 50-day moving average and traders have found a number of bearish things to worry about. Talk of the Chinese rejecting more corn due to unapproved GMO’s and a proposed bill to eliminate the ethanol mandate have been used as excuses to sell. The Chinese rejections are probably a legitimate concern, but the ethanol mandate is a minimum figure not a maximum and the industry would function without a mandate right now.

Wheat                            Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Down          Net Long Futures and Options: -113005
Long Term: Down           Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -4 KC: H -4 @7:30 AM


The wheat market looks rough. Traders are still focused on the Canadian and Australian wheat production estimates which suggest that we may struggle to export wheat as we move through the crop year. Actual sales, on the other hand, haven’t been that bad and the Dollar is relatively weak, which could help keep us in the hunt. The market is oversold and due for a bounce and with the Paris prices stabilizing, I suspect the bounce will come soon.

Soybeans                        Estimated Fund Position
Trends – January Contract
Short Term: Up               Net Long Futures and Options: 112667
Long Term:Up                 Change: -8000
Overnight Trade: F -10 @7:30 AM


Despite some very good demand news yesterday the January soybeans reversed lower and is seeing more selling pressure this morning. It appears that the market is headed to trend line support at the $13.07 area. The failure to close above $13.50 with the indicators overbought was a good signal to take profits on longs. The talk has switched back to the S. American crop and how our exports will dry up soon. S. American weather and export sales are going to be the key moving forward.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures posted moderate gains on Thursday and are trading steady to slightly better in overnight trade. Cutouts fell significantly but export sales and a drop below year ago slaughter weights should provide support. We are still awaiting this weeks’ cash trade, with bids not well established, while asking prices remain firm near the $134 level in most regions. We look for cash to trade steady to $1.00 better at some point today.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 20-40 Higher


Feeder cattle futures closed sharply higher on Thursday, turning chart patterns higher and closing firmly above the 40-50 day moving averages. Lower corn trade and new record highs in the cash index are leading the advance. With the index above 167.50 and rising, we look for futures to be well supported. Corn is off another 3 cents in overnight trade, while feeders are gaining another .30-.50 without help from the fats.



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