Schwieterman: Colder weather to lead to fewer feeder placements

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Corn                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Up               Net Long Futures and Options: -181958
Long Term: Down           Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: H -1/2 @7:30 AM


The corn was very quiet overnight. Traders are waiting for tomorrow’s supply and demand numbers. The December report has a tendency to be uneventful, but we may see more changes than normal since we missed the October report. Expectations are for a slight reduction in ending stocks, but it will still be a long way from a “bullish” report. Plan on another day of consolidation trade.

Wheat                                Estimated Fund Position
Trends – March Contract
Short Term: Down             Net Long Futures and Options: -106005
Long Term: Down              Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +1 KC: H +1 @7:30 AM


The March KW is still scrapping along the recent lows. Expectations are for a friendly report tomorrow, but that hasn’t been any help to the market since the Canadian wheat production figure came out last week. USDA will have to increase the export estimate more than expected and come in with an ending stocks figure that is lower than expected to put some life back into the market.

Soybeans                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends – January Contract
Short Term: Up                 Net Long Futures and Options: 113667
Long Term:Up                   Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: F +7 @7:30 AM


The soybeans are still consolidating at the upper end of the recent trading range. Like the corn and wheat, the expectations are for a friendly report tomorrow. The ending stocks estimate could come in low enough to have the market teetering on the edge of being very bullish. Export sales and S. American weather will be the main forces in the market for the next few months.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed mixed on Friday, with the front months modestly lower and deferred contracts higher. For the week February futures were down 1.25, with cash trade seen steady to slightly lower. Cold weather in feeding country should be slowing production, with frigid conditions seen across the plains and Midwest. On the flip side, demand on the east coast could be slowed by snow storms causing less restaurant activity. Show lists will be collected today, with most expecting steady to larger offerings.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures closed moderately higher on Friday but off about 1.00 for the week in the January contract. Overnight corn prices are mixed and that is how we expect to start the week in the feeders. Cold weather could slow placements over the coming weeks.



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