Schwieterman: Corn market is still consolidating

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Corn                            Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up           Net Long Futures and Options: 180706

Long Term: Up           Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: N -2 @7:30 AM

The corn market is still consolidating, and will be until tomorrow’s supply and demand report. Once the report is out of the way, traders will focus on the weather and potential planting delays. Open weather will put pressure on the new crop contracts and expectations will be for more than 91.7 million acres once we get to the June report. Look for directionless trade today.

Wheat                          Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down       Net Long Futures and Options: 474

Long Term:Up                        Change: +3000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -2 KC: N -2 @7:30 AM

The national crop condition ratings were delay until this afternoon for some reason, but we still have state reports to look at. Kansas came in at 29 percent G-E down 3 points and P-VP was at 27 percent up 2 points. Texas was mixed with G-E at 13 percent up 2 and P-VP at 61 percent up 2. Oklahoma was at 15 percent G-E down 2 and 48 percent P-VP up 4. Forecasts are dry and our best rain chances always seem to be 10 days out. The July KW has to clear $7.50 to turn bullish.

Soybeans                     Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up           Net Long Futures and Options: 144669

Long Term:Up                        Change: -3500

Overnight Trade: N -1 @7:30 AM

Like the corn, the soybean market is going nowhere as traders wait for tomorrow’s report. Expectations are for higher exports and higher imports and a cut in ending stocks, and it will be the size of those changes that move the market. Plan on volatility tomorrow, but after that is out of the way the July contract should resume its move to $15.00 and we will likely see bull spreading dominate the market.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher

Live cattle futures closed steady to moderately higher on Monday, with June rejecting their early move below the 50 day moving average. Our show list was up from week ago levels, while most national numbers appear to be about steady. Cutouts remain on the defensive and the spread between choice and select continues to widen. No deliveries were posted, as the discount to cash in the April contract remains large. Overnight activity is trending modestly higher, with April the upside leader.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 10-30 Lower

Feeder cattle futures closed moderately higher in all but the April contract on Monday but are giving back part of those gains in overnight trade. Corn is softer overnight, after a modestly lower close on Monday. The cash index posted its’ second highest close ever on Monday, but is expected to fall off some as the week goes on. The April contract has an early expiration this year, due to its’ proximity to Easter Sunday. The contract will expire on Thursday the 17.



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