Schwieterman: Feeder cattle futures suffer losses again

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Corn                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                       Net Long Futures and Options: 333
Long Term: Down                   Change: -15000
Overnight Trade: K Unch @7:30 AM


Export sales were horrendous with net cancellations of 49,800 MT for the old crop and new crop sales at 206,400 MT. This won’t help easy anyone’s fears of USDA cutting the export estimate again at some point. There isn’t much positive news to report with the May contract approaching the February low and a new low for the move in December. Unless we get a change in the news, the next objective for the December contract is $5.15. I would look for the bull spreading to resume soon, but another day of profit taking wouldn’t be a surprise.

Wheat                                       Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                 Net Long Futures and Options: -74171
Long Term: Down                  Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K +2 KC: K +3 @7:30 AM


Wheat export sales were good at 618,100 MT of old crop and 210,000 MT of new crop sales. If  we could do this consistently, attitudes would be much different in the wheat market. Yesterday’s new lows are keeping the down trends alive and the next downside objective for the May KW is $7.00. We are going to have to see feed usage increased for the wheat again in tomorrow report to get any excitement in this market.

Soybeans                                 Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                       Net Long Futures and Options: 117599
Long Term:Up                         Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: K +2 @7:30 AM


Soybean export sales were tremendous with 392,000 MT of old crop and 990,000 MT of new crop sales. We only need four more weeks of sales like this to reach the USDA estimate, so surely USDA will increase the export estimate in tomorrow’s report. The corn and wheat markets really weighed on the beans yesterday, but the market is still trying to creep higher. $14.50 is very good support in the May contract.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 10-30 Lower


Live cattle futures closed moderately lower on Wednesday, rejecting around 1.50 of the morning’s sharp selloff. Cash trade in Texas and parts of Kansas developed at $128 by midmorning. Nebraska saw limited trade of $203-$204 in the beef. The wild price swings saw new contract lows posted in the June forward months. We expect additional sales in the north, with asking prices remaining $205+ and $130 in the west. Overnight trade is lower across the board, with deferred contracts off as much as .55 for the session. Anticipation of lower feeding costs is taking some of the bloom off of the deferred market.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 30-50 Lower

Feeder cattle futures posted triple digit losses for the second day in a row on Tuesday. Weakness in the live cattle pit more than offset a sharp selloff in the corn futures. All but the March contract posted new contract lows and anew low close. Overnight activity remains under pressure, with most contracts .50-.70 lower in spite of mixed to lower corn values. Cash index levels fell modestly on Wednesday.



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