Schwieterman: Friday's report pushes cattle futures lower

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Corn                                              Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: -23669
Long Term: Down                     Change: +4000
Overnight Trade: K -6 Z -9 @7:30 AM


Corn was weaker in the overnight session due to forecasts that are more favorable for planting than when we left off Friday. The bull spreaders are back in action and it will be very interesting to see how the September contract is treated. The planting progress figure released today will still be behind average, but there is hope that the report released on May 6th shows that we are caught up to a more normal pace. $6.40 should be good support for the May contract this week, but look for the December contract to make a run for the lows near $5.25 if the forecasts look good for planting.

Wheat                                          Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                          Net Long Futures and Options: -52602
Long Term: Down                     Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K -8 KC: K -7 @7:30 AM


Crop condition ratings should decline today thanks to flooding in the SRW Belt and freeze damage and dry weather in the HRW Belt. We are also contending with potential planting delays in the HRS region. None of this seems to matter to the markets, which seem more concerned with improving forecasts for corn planting. If the good to excellent drops more than 2 points or the forecast lows in the HRW Belt get a little colder, the wheat could show some independent strength, but for the time being it looks like the market wants to do what the corn does.

Soybeans                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                            Net Long Futures and Options: 47225
Long Term:Up                              Change: -4000
Overnight Trade: K -7 X-6 @7:30 AM


The old crop soybeans are testing strong overhead resistance and are on the verge of a breakout to the upside. The front months of the market are being contained, somewhat, by the threat of expanding acres, which has kept pressure on the new crop. Basis levels are very strong and the May – July spread continues to set records, which tells us that old crop stocks are extremely tight, but speculators don’t seem to want to jump into the market. The bulls need to see a close back above $14.30 in the May today.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: 30-50 Lower

Live cattle futures closed mixed to lower on Friday, and based on the cattle on feed and placement numbers, should see moderately lower trade to open this week. Placements of 106% were above the range of expectations, which along with the weaker cash trade should weigh on the market. A test of contract lows over the next few days looks likely. Weather will show some better demand scenarios after the first half of this week has passed. Equity strength could provide some support.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: 40-80 Lower


Feeder cattle futures closed moderately to sharply lower on Friday and will likely set new contract lows in most months following the higher than expected March placement figure. The dangling carrot of higher cash in deferred contract of fat cattle is going away, which should keep bullish feeder traders cautious. Strength in equities and energies could provide limited support.



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