Schwieterman: Improving grazing conditions benefit feeders

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Corn                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down                  Net Long Futures and Options: -178747
Long Term: Down                  Change: -12000
Overnight Trade: Z -1 @7:30 AM


The corn fell through the $4.70 support yesterday, but there was no follow through selling overnight. There isn’t much fresh news to work with. The market is still oversold and the weather still looks mostly favorable. If the market had an excuse for short covering, other than the good export sales, we would see a move back to the $4.80 area, but at the moment we don’t have much to get the rally started. Informa will be out today with their production estimates, so traders will be waiting for that. FC Stone’s numbers were in line with USDA, which is a little supportive.

Wheat                                         Estimated Fund Position
Trends – September Contract
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -80655
Long Term: Down                     Change: -2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: U +2 KC: U +2 @7:30 AM


Wheat was impressive yesterday. The positive close in the Kansas City wheat in the face of the weakness elsewhere is bullish. We have to see good export sales to keep the wheat separated from the corn and we are getting them. At the same time we are seeing better rains in the HRW Belt, which could put pressure on the July 14 contract. The old crop – new crop spread could be very active this year. On the charts, the September KW looks like it should make run to $7.20 soon, at which point we will need to see more friendly information from USDA.

Soybeans                                    Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down                     Net Long Futures and Options: 39914
Long Term: Down                      Change: -5000
Overnight Trade: X +5 @7:30 AM


The November soybeans made their first close below $12.00 since April, which looks pretty ugly on the charts. Like the corn, the weather looks fine and there just isn’t much reason for a bounce in the beans. $11.80 keeps coming up as a possible downside target for the market, so that is what I am planning on right now.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed under pressure on Thursday, with the front three months under their 40 day moving averages. Cash trade was limited to a few sales at steady money in the south. Remaining asking prices are at $121 in the south and $196+ up north. Cutout values were narrowly mixed but demand appeared to be picking up. Weekly beef export levels were subdued compared to the 4 week average. the poor technical close could keep the market on the defensive.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures closed moderately better on Thursday, with lower corn prices overshadowing the weakness in the live cattle. Cash index levels rose to 149.01 on Thursday. Overnight activity is mixed, with front months on the rise and deferred contracts lower. Corn prices are modestly lower again in the night session. We look for improving conditions in grazing country to benefit the feeders as we move into late summer and early fall.



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