Schwieterman: Live cattle futures closed moderately higher

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Corn                            Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up           Net Long Futures and Options: 190706

Long Term: Up           Change: +10000

Overnight Trade: Nu Unch @7:30 AM

The July corn tested the post stocks report high in overnight trade. Expectations are for friendly numbers in today’s supply and demand report and we have the potential for new highs and more bull spreading in the corn market. Once we get this report out of the way, traders will be focused on the weather and potential planting delays. No delays will put pressure on the new crop contracts.

Wheat                          Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down       Net Long Futures and Options: 3474

Long Term:Up                        Change: +3000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +4 KC: N +6 @7:30 AM

The national winter wheat condition rating came out worse than last year at 35 percent Good to Excellent. The last time conditions were worse was 2002 and 1996, both of which were poor production years. The HRW Belt needs some rain, but it doesn’t appear to be likely any time soon. Plan on lower condition ratings next Monday. The July KW has cleared the $7.50 resistance, making $7.70 the next upside objective barring a negative reaction to today’s report.

Soybeans                     Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up           Net Long Futures and Options: 150669

Long Term:Up                        Change: +6000

Overnight Trade: N +10 @7:30 AM

The July soybeans made a new high for the move overnight in anticipation of bullish numbers today. The news is the same as it has been for weeks and we still haven’t got the old crop supply and demand balance sheets figured out. Look for lower ending stocks today and look for the July contract to keep working towards the $15.00 level.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher

Live cattle futures closed moderately higher on Tuesday, with more impressive strength in the October forward contracts. Cash trade appears to be destined for an end of the week activity, with bids and asking prices a good $4.00 apart. Cutout values were mixed, with choice lower and select higher. Overnight trade is firmer, with .15-.40 gains in the front four months. Continued weakness in the lean hog complex seems to be keeping a lid on the live cattle as well. Current packer bids, while softer than a week ago, remain well above the lead April contract.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed higher on Tuesday, with the lead April contract up .80 for the day. Today is supply/demand report day for the grains, which could have a significant impact on the feeders as well. The report will be released at 11:00 am central time and is expected to be friendly to corn and beans. Overnight trade in the feeders is mixed, with a slightly firmer bias.



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