Corn Estimated Fund Position
Trends – December Contract
Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -204805
Long Term: Down Change: +3000
Overnight Trade: Z -1 @7:30 AM
The corn market is set for another day of consolidation ahead of Monday’s supply and demand report. I had hoped for a short covering rally to end the week, but so far it looks like the market is going to correct the oversold condition by going sideways. Fresh news is sparse. The forecasts are mostly non-threatening and it seems that we are just marking time. The $4.55 low is the support to watch in the December contract with $4.65 being resistance.
Wheat Estimated Fund Position
Trends – September Contract
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -79502
Long Term: Down Change: -1500
Overnight Trade: Chicago: U +2 KC: U +3 @7:30 AM
The wheat market is trying to drift higher. Monday’s report probably won’t hold much fresh information, but it should confirm last month’s bullish numbers. The key resistance still lies at the 50-day moving average, which comes in at $7.12 today in the September KW contract. Meanwhile we had another new low for the move in the July 14 KW and it keeps raining in KS. Sell rallies in the new crop if we ever get one.
Soybeans Estimated Fund Position
Trends – November Contract
Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 23164
Long Term: Down Change: +7000
Overnight Trade: X +9 @7:30 AM
The soybeans are seeing a good short covering rally. I was hoping for a run to $12.12 in the November contract, but I think we are running out of time for that to happen ahead of the report. The extended forecasts still look favorable for the soybeans, which is making some analysts think USDA will get the record yield they have been predicting and some suggest that USDA may be too low. Time will tell, but rallies should be sold.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Thursday, spurred by the news that Tyson was going stop killing Zilmax fed cattle. The news has asking prices raised in the country to $123 in the south and $200 in the north. Outside market activity late in the week has also been a factor in the cattle rally, with the Dollar making 7 week lows. Weights for last week took an unseasonal turn lower for both the steers and heifers. We look for active cash trade at some point today, with a solid chance of cash advancing at least $2.00 from week ago levels.
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Opening Call: 10-30 Lower
Feeder cattle futures took their lead from the fats on Thursday, closing sharply higher on the day, in spite of higher corn trade and a softening cash index. The index may end up being a one day blip in the bullish trend, while corn will be awaiting Monday mornings’ supply demand numbers for further direction. Overnight feeders traded mostly softer, with modest profit taking after the new highs posted in the September forward contracts.