Schwieterman: Show lists shrinking, Cattle futures higher

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Corn                                       Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                   Net Long Futures and Options: 110385
Long Term: Up                    Change: +7000
Overnight Trade: K -2 Z -1 @7:30 AM


Yesterday the May corn spent a big part of the session trading lower, but eventually the bull spreaders returned to the market and the May contract finished the session at the highs of the day. There hasn’t been any follow through buying yet, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this turn into another day of consolidation trade. The old crop – new crop spreads will be interesting to watch ahead of the reports Thursday. Basis levels are starting to firm again, but there is also concern about possible planting delays, so at the moment we are set up for choppy trade in the spreads.

Wheat                                   Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Up                   Net Long Futures and Options: -55151
Long Term: Down              Change: -1000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: K +1 KC: K +1 @7:30 AM


Yesterday ended up being a directionless day for the wheat and so far it looks like more of the same today. The May KW is using the 9-day moving average as support, so a slip below that level would be negative. This market should be able to reach $7.74 before completely stalling out, but it has been 4 sessions since we have seen any strength. New highs for the move in the corn would give the wheat a good chance for some strength, otherwise look for consolidation.

Soybeans                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                Net Long Futures and Options: 82172
Long Term:Up                       Change: -3000
Overnight Trade: K +2 @7:30 AM


The May soybeans have seen two consecutive days of two sided trade with a weaker bias and this is shaping up to be another one. We don’t have much fresh news and traders are waiting for Thursday’s reports. Fresh old crop export sales would be supportive, but seeing big numbers right now is unlikely. The May contract should eventually work back to $14.90, but that isn’t going to happen before the reports.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed


Live cattle futures closed modestly higher on Monday, with the market rejecting the sharply higher opening. Gains moderated quickly on Monday, as near term demand struggles offset most of the bullish placement news from Friday. Overnight activity has been narrowly mixed, with modestly higher trade in the lead contracts. Show lists are smaller overall, with Texas and Kansas showing the largest declines from a week ago. Open interest did grow 542 contracts on Mondays’ positive close. Asking prices appear to be in the $127 and $202+ areas to begin the week.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Opening Call: Mixed


Feeder cattle futures settled modestly higher on Monday, which was about the middle of their nearly 100 point trading range. Overnight trade has been two sided, with a slightly higher bias in the two front month contracts. The cash index fell 1.44 for the day to 133.62 and is now more than 100 discount to the expiring March futures. The strong close in corn futures on Monday will be monitored closely for additional buying. Overnight trade is modestly lower in old crop, with new crop holding on to Monday’s gains.



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