The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for October, released October 10, projects a record U.S. corn crop, and somewhat higher 2014 and 2015 forecasts for U.S. beef production compared with the September report.
The October report projects U.S. 2014 beef production at 24.4 billion pounds, up slightly from the September forecast of 24.3 billion, but below the 2013 total of 25.7 billion pounds. The increase over the September forecast is based on heavier carcass weights resulting from lower grain prices. For 2015, the report projects U.S. beef production to decline again to 23.8 billion pounds. The authors project an annual average cattle price of $152.91 per hundredweight, and a range of $149 to $162 per hundredweight for next year.
For pork, the report projects 2014 production at 22.8 billion pounds, down from 23.2 billion last year, with the reduction largely due to the PEDv outbreak. Next year, the agency predicts U.S. pork production will increase to 23.9 billion pounds. The projected 2014 average hog price is projected at $ 77.60 per hundredweight, and for next year the report lists a range of $63 to $68 per hundredweight.
As for dairy production, the report projects 2014 production at 206 billion pounds, a slight reduction from the September forecast but well above last-year’s total of 201 billion. Next year, the agency projects milk production to increase to 213 billion pounds. The report lists a range of $24.10 to $24.20 per hundredweight for 2014 average milk prices, with a decline to $18.95 to 19.85 per hundredweight next year.
U.S. corn production meanwhile, is forecast at 14.5 billion bushels, up slightly from the September forecast but 4 percent higher than last-year’s harvest. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 174.2 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from the September forecast and 15.4 bushels above the 2013 average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Based on acreage updates from several states, the report projects acreage harvested for grain at 83.1 million acres, down 1 percent from the September forecast and down 5 percent from 2013.
View the full WASDE report from USDA.