CHICAGO (Dow Jones)-Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs could open generally down slightly Monday on potential selling carried over from futures' declines last Friday, said analysts and brokers.

Friday evening's $0.53 per hundredweight pork cutout price relapse and flat-to-weak cash hog price expectations are more bearish market features.

Caution could develop as buyers await early-week market direction. And, some spot-October longs may bail out of the contract either outright or through spreads before spot-month expiration on Oct. 14.

Nevertheless, possible short covering and October and December discounts to CME's hog index could emerge as positive market influences. And, gradually improving pork packer profit margins may inspire prospective bulls.

The Dow Jones packer margin index for Friday's operations was plus $5.32, compared with plus $4.58 the previous day.

Plus, October's oversold Relative Strength Index condition may interest speculative longs.

October's 48.75 40-day moving average serves as an area of support. The contract's 50.00 10-day moving average is a resistance level.

December's 48.30 Thursday low is a price support level. The contract's 49.32 10-day and 49.77 20-day moving averages are resistance thresholds.

CME bellies could open mixed.

Bearish market features include possible follow-through from Friday's futures losses and still hefty daily hog kills.

Bullish pork belly factors consist of potential short covering and last Friday's steady fresh belly quote at $70 per hundredweight.

Also, February's oversold chart condition may motivate would-be buyers.

February's 79.50-cents Sept. 2 high is an area of price support. The contract's 81.00 Sept. 3 high is a price resistance barrier.

The 81.27 10-and-40 day moving average convergence is a key February chart resistance level.

May's 82.00 Friday low is a price support floor. The contract's 82.70 10-day and 82.74 40-day moving averages are chart resistance ceilings.


Cattle Complex


Analysts and brokers are divided about CME live cattle's open.

Spillover from Friday's futures letdown tied to last week's disappointing cash cattle results and slumping boxed beef values are bearish live cattle issues.

Packers last week bought cash cattle for mostly $83 per hundredweight, compared with generally $84.50 the week before.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Friday evening boxed beef data showed choice cuts slid another $1.59 per hundredweight, and select cuts dropped $1.04.

And, unprofitable beef packer profit margins may limit how much packers pay for supplies this week.

The latest operating margin index for beef packers was minus $25.55 per head, compared with minus $24.05 the previous day, as calculated by HedgersEdge.com.

However, shorts possibly covering previously held positions and October and December oversold technical indicators may wield positive live cattle influence.

Also, same may regard back-month cattle new contract lows last Friday as a buy-indictor for Monday.

Monday is the first notice day for deliveries as spot-October prepares to expire on Oct. 30.

October 82.60-cents Dec. 8 low is a price support area. The contract's last seasonal low was Dec. 5 at 81.25.

October's 83.50 Dec. 5 high is an area of price resistance.

December 83.90 Friday low is price support mark. The contract's last seasonal low was 83.85 on Dec. 5.

December's 85.00 Dec. 8 low is a price resistance obstacle.

Feeder cattle may open mixed.

Leftover from last Friday's considerable futures losses and distant-month premiums to CME's feeder cattle index are bearish market features.

And, some-spot-October selling is possible ahead of the contract's Oct. 29 expiration date.

However, potential short covering and front-month discounts to the exchange's feeder cattle index might become positive market factors.

Also, speculative buyers may zero in on November's oversold chart signal.

October's 92.75 Dec. 16 low is a price support level. The contract's 94.25 Dec. 16 high is a price resistance barrier.


(To access the daily livestock market data recap report, keyword search for "Livestock Market Fundamental Data Recap.")


-By Theopolis Waters; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5778; theopolis.waters@dowjones.com