CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Mercantile Exchange hogs could open mostly weak Wednesday on possible spillover from futures' sales on Tuesday, said analysts and brokers.
Wednesday evening's $1.29 per hundredweight pork cutout relapse ate into pork packer margins which may also wield negative influence on lean hogs.
The Dow Jones packer margin index for Tuesday's operations was plus $7.46, compared with plus $9.60 the previous day.
Furthermore, some are concerned that daily hog slaughters above 430,000 head will drag on cash hog bids and add more tonnage to an already overburdened fresh pork market.
However, potential short covering and spot-October and nearby-December discounts to CME's hog index may bring some measure of relief to hog contracts.
And, the total ham and pork results in Tuesday's USDA monthly cold storage report were considered slightly bullish for lean hogs on Wednesday.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Iowa/Southern Minnesota weekly average hog weight item showed hogs in the area last week at 268.2 pounds, compared with 268.9 the week before and 263.0 a year ago.
Week-over-week hog weights in Iowa suggest producers are current in marketing their animals, a CME hog trader said. But, weights are still bigger compared with last year and more hogs are available.
October 49.06-cents 40-day moving average is a support area. The contract's 50.26 20-day moving average is a chart resistance level.
December on Tuesday finished atop 48.68 20-day moving average support. The 48.02 40-day moving average is December's next technical support level.
December's 50.29 10-day moving average is a resistance target.
CME bellies could open mainly weak on possible follow-through from Tuesday's futures declines and fresh belly price trepidation given worrisome hog slaughters.
The federal government's monthly cold storage results for bellies on Tuesday was viewed as neutral to slightly bearish for futures on Wednesday.
Also, late-Tuesday's CME weekly belly storage survey was called neutral to somewhat bearish. Although last week's belly out-movement was inline with last year's amount, inventories remain larger than a year ago.
CME reported 2.4 million pounds of bellies were removed from exchange-approved warehouses last week, compared with 2.3 million taken out last year. The exchange quoted on-hand stocks for last week were at 24.768 million pounds versus 14.648 million a year ago.
However, some believe recent substantial futures losses may to some degree factored in the negative USDA and CME reports which might generate short covering.
February is oversold based on its Relative Strength Index chart. And, steady cash bellies Tuesday evening at $70 per hundredweight could inspire bullish traders.
February's 81.27-cents 40-day moving average is a support floor. The contract's 82.41 20-day moving average is a resistance ceiling.
May's 81.50 Aug. 17 high serves as an area of price support. The contract's 82.85 40-day moving average is a resistance barrier.
CME live cattle could begin the morning mixed on possible short covering versus cash cattle price confidence due to fewer cattle for sale this week, said analysts and brokers.
Cash-basis fed cattle bids cropped up at $82 per hundredweight versus $86 to $87 asking prices. Fed cattle last week brought $84 to mostly $84.50.
Spot-October and nearby-December oversold technical indicators along with relatively profitable beef packer profit margins are market pluses.
The latest operating margin index for beef packers was plus $16.15 per head, compared with plus $16.20 the previous day, as calculated by HedgersEdge.com.
By the same token, uncertainty about how this week's cash trade will pan out and late-Tuesday's directionless wholesale boxed beef prices may cap potential board gains.
The federal government's Tuesday evening boxed beef item showed choice items down $0.25 per hundredweight, but select cuts gained $0.42.
October 84.50-cents Sept. 20 low is a key price support level. The contract's 85.75 June 16 low is a price resistance barrier.
December 84.05 Monday low is price support mark. The contract's last seasonal low was 83.85 on Dec. 5.
December's 85.25 Friday high is a price resistance threshold.
Feeder cattle's open may vary.
Potential back-month follow through from most contracts' modest advances on Tuesday and front-month discounts to CME's feeder cattle index are positive market factors.
November's oversold chart condition and overnight-Chicago Board of Trade corn weakness may lure bullish speculators.
By the same token, spot-September selling ahead of the contract's expiration on Thursday and distant feeder cattle premiums to CME's feeder cattle index may at times weigh on futures.
September's 96.50-cents June 5 low is a price support point. The contract's 97.25 Sept. 18 and 97.75 June 17 highs are price resistance marks.
October's 96.50 Sept. 17 low serves as an area of price support. The contract's 97.25 Thursday high is a price resistance obstacle.
(To access the daily livestock market data recap report, keyword search for "Livestock Market Fundamental Data Recap.")
-By Theopolis Waters; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-341-5778; firstname.lastname@example.org