So much for summer drought and $7 corn. With December corn futures now touching $3.35 and November soybeans at $9.55 at Wednesday’s close, it seems the markets are expecting another bumper harvest.
“The talk here really is revolving around crop size,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “It looks like we are in for a record corn crop and a record soybean crop here in the U.S.”
Blame Mother Nature. “Weather during the month of July and into August so far has really cooperated,” Vaclavik said. “We have seen plenty of rain throughout major corn and soybean growing areas, so in terms of corn, we’re certainly looking at national yield north of 170 bushels per acre. The previous record was 171 (bushels per acre), and I think there’s a good shot at this point that we exceed that.”
Soybeans are in similarly good shape right now. “We’re looking for something potentially between 48 and 49 bushels per acre,” Vaclavik said.
Given those expectations, the Standard Grain analyst suggested that growers should be prepared for the market to move lower sooner than they might expect. “I think this year the market is going to be very quick to discount a big crop,” he said. “This could be a year in which we put a bottom in these markets a little earlier than we maybe do in some normal years.”