Corn futures strengthened in the overnight session despite a more positive 6 to 10 day weather outlook. Remnant ideas about lower than expected ending stocks for corn may be driving premiums and giving incentive to buyers. Pre-trading ahead of the export sales data may also be adding support. The trade estimate for corn are 325,000 to 525,000 tonnes for old crop and 150,000-300,000 for new crop. Though the 6-day outlook has cleared up, there has been lingering wetness in the eastern corn belt, albeit not as much. September corn futures gained 3.25 cents to $4.3275/bushel just after sunrise Thursday, while December rose 3 cents to $4.4325.
Beans rallied overnight on what appears to be delayed trade reaction to the record June NOPA crush numbers released yesterday. Higher than expected soybean crush/exports and lower than expected soyoil yields may have contributed to support in the overnight session as the entire soy complex is higher early Thursday morning. NOPA reported meal exports at 596,573 tons, compared to 388,112 tons a year ago. The trade estimates for today’s 930 am export sales report are -50,000-150,000 tonnes for old crop and 200,000-400,000 tonnes for new crop. August soybeans gained 5.75 cents to $10.3075/bushel early Thursday, while August soyoil advanced .24 cents to 31.89 cents/pound and August meal jumped $4.3 to $365.5/ton.
Wheat futures were neutral-lower overnights continuing a sluggish sentiment that has developed in response to abundant U.S. and world stocks, positive weather, and exports that leave much to be desired. Trade estimates for the export sales report due out today are 300,000-500,000 tonnes for 2015/16 wheat. Though conditions seem to be improving for wheat in the U.S., wetness in Europe as well as dryness in Canada will continued to be watched. September CBOT wheat futures firmed fell 1 cent to $5.6725/bushel early Thursday morning, while Sep KC wheat dropped .75 cent to $5.5825/bushel, and September MWE stayed unchanged at $5.895.
Yesterday’s bounce in live cattle was seemingly short-lived as futures dipped Wednesday. While it appears that pre-holiday selling might have been on the uptick, technical barriers have limited upside movements and confirmed sentiments about declining demand from competition with other meats. Boxed beef values slipped slightly but seem to be nearing a low. August cattle lost.12 cents to 147.02 cents/pound Wednesday, while December futures were neutral at 152.27. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle futures rose .75 cents to 215.15 cents/pound, and November feeders gained .60 to 209.87.
Buying in the cash hog market seems to be accelerating based on the lean hog index surpassing the 80 cent level just a few weeks after hitting a low for June-July of around 77 cents. While futures continue to trade at a discount to cash, it seems that the spread is narrowing. Three weeks until another major U.S. holiday begins looming and another seasonal demand shift upward. This seasonal shift is marked by demand-increasing trends like back to school events, tailgating, and increased grilling due to more favorable weather. August hog futures slipped .47 cents to 75.30 cents/pound Wednesday, while December advanced .22 cents to 61.45.
Cotton futures took a sure step downward Wednesday perhaps on long-liquidation by funds and delayed follow-up reaction to plentiful global stocks. It remains to be seen whether or not the newly proposed world cotton contract will help bring equilibrium to structural supply/demand issues plaguing this market. The trade will continue to monitor Chinese policy regarding their oversupply and will also keep an on eye on U.S. crop conditions. December cotton futures fell 1.09 cents to 65.04 cents/pound, while May dropped 1.01 cents to 65.01.