Early Monday morning, corn is firmer while the other grains and oilseeds are lower. It will be interesting to see what type of follow-through trade occurs today fresh off of last Friday’s Supply and Demand report. While corn ending stocks came in lower in the report with 2015/16 production down 100 million bushels from last month’s USDA estimate to 13.530 billion and ending stocks down 172 million bushels from last the June report, yields stayed at 166.8 bu/ac compared to the average pre-report estimate of 165.1. This stronger than expected yield forecast could limit corn’s upside potential. Global financial markets continue to watch China and Greece. September corn futures climbed 2 cents to $4.29/bushel early Monday morning, while December added 1.75 cents to $4.4675.
The soy complex is lower after sunrise Monday morning after a moderate rise Friday in response to the midday report. In the report the USDA lowered 2014/15 U.S. ending stocks by 75 million bushels from the 330 million forecast in June to 255 million. This was 37 million bushels below the average trade expectation of 292. For new crop, the USDA held firm on a 46.0 bu/ac average yield despite the average trade guess of 45.1 and new crop ending stocks being adjusted lower by 50 million bushels from June to 425 million. The 6 to 10 day weather outlook still calls for above average rains for northern parts of IL and IN as well as OH. The weekly crop progress report will be out at 3pm today. August soybeans fell 3 cents to $10.405/bushel early Monday, while August soyoil lost .15 cents to 32.27 cents/pound and August meal lost $.8 to $355.30/ton.
Wheat futures are mixed to start the week after falling modestly Friday after the WASDE. Surprisingly, there wasn’t a stronger bearish reaction after the USDA raised global ending stocks for 2015/16 by 8.6% from last month to 219.8 million tonnes. This was also 9.1% higher than the average pre-report estimate of 201.4 million tonnes. The U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 was forecast to be 842 million bushels, 28 million higher than June but 13 million lower than the average pre-report estimate of 855. Weather in eastern Europe and Canada as well as U.S. crop conditions continue to be factors. September CBOT wheat futures fell .75 cents to $5.7525/bushel just after sunrise Monday, while Sep KC wheat dropped 1 cent to $5.7125/bushel, and September MWE advanced slipped 1 cent to $6.065.
Softening demand has persistently weighed on CME live cattle as futures continued their slide Friday. August cattle closed at 147.47 cents/pound that day, well below the 40-day moving average of 151.74. Nearby futures are at their lowest since June of last year and in stark contrast to the November 2014 all-time high of 171 cents/pound. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reported recently that competition from other meats such as pork could continue to weigh on beef prices and may see live cattle prices hit as low as 140 cent/pound in 12 months. August cattle dropped 1 cent to 147.47 cents/pound Friday, while December futures lost 1.02 cents to 151.92. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle futures lowered 0.2 cents to 211.25 cents/pound, and November feeders fell 0.77 to 206.72.
Last Friday, lean hogs traded mixed with strength in the nearby and weakness in the deferred months. The lean hog index lifted .59 cents to 78.66 cents/pound, signaling firmness in the cash market. The USDA outlined updated hog supply and demand figures on Friday. Total 2015 U.S. pork supply was stated to be 26.241 billion pounds, up .19% from 26.141. The 2016 supply was forecast down .06% from last month to 26.333 billion pounds. U.S pork production for 2015 was also boosted .5% from the June estimate to 24.599 billion pounds. August hog futures gained .45 cents to 73.72 cents/pound Friday, while December slid 1.02 cents to 59.10.
ICE cotton futures declined after the report Friday and are lower early Monday morning as supply forecasts came in higher than the trade expected. They expected production at 14.37 million bales, yet Friday’s WASDE estimate was unchanged from June at 14.5 million bales. USDA forecast exports to be 10.80 million bales vs the 10.68 pre-report estimate and the 10.70 June USDA figure. Ending stocks were reported today to be 4.20 million bales for 2015/16 vs the pre-report estimate of 4.13 million bales and vs 4.40 in the June USDA projection. Reduced estimates of and forecasts for global cotton demand, particularly from China, probably played a big role in the ICE futures decline. December cotton futures fell 0.09 cents to 65.43 cents/pound, while May is unchanged at 65.67.