The grain and oilseed markets were higher early Monday morning ahead of export inspections data due out at 7:30 a.m. and the 3:00 crop weather report. After the 1.3 bushel yield revision lower to 167.5 bu/ac in Friday’s WASDE, traders will look to crop weather, the quarterly stocks report, and the macro markets. The trade expected the crop condition rating to drop by 1-2%. The Shanghai Composite closed 2.67% lower Monday while the Shenzhen Composite lost 6.65%. U.S. stock futures are up .09% early Monday morning, ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday Sep 16. December corn futures were 4 cents higher to $3.91/bushel early Monday, while March moved 4 cents higher to $402.25.
The soy complex was firmer to start the week after key data was released last week. After the USDA raised the 2015/16 average U.S. soybean yield to 47.1 bushels/acre last Friday, up .2 bushels from their August forecast, the trade looks to validate the supply side with crop condition ratings and the demand side with export inspections/sales. The dollar was up by .06% overnight. Weather forecasts remain benign and little signs of early frost potential. Tuesday, markets will assess Aug NOPA crush, which have been record-high the last three months. November futures were 7.25 cents higher to $8.81/bushel at dawn Monday morning, while October soyoil gained 0.48 cents to 27.13 cents/pound and October meal was $1 higher at $311.90/ton.
The wheat complex was lower overnight as the macro markets are weighing commodities to start the week. STATS Canada will issue their all-wheat stocks report Thursday with trade estimates falling to 6.5 million tonnes, down 37% from a year ago. The trade awaits the release of export inspections data released mid-morning Monday as well the September WASDE due out a week from this Friday. September CBOT wheat futures lost 3 cents to $4.74/bushel early Monday, while Sep KC wheat fell 1.25 cents to $4.565/bushel, and September MWE dropped 0.5 cents to $4.90.
Live cattle futures sank again Friday as part of an overall collapse in the livestock trade, marking the third straight day of losses for the protein with the October settling near the contract low. Boxed beef cutouts dropped again, despite rising Thursday, with choice down .41 to 239.06 and select down .60 to 228.10. So far this week, cattle slaughter was estimated at 458,000 head , compared to 547,000 for the same period last week, and 572,000 a year ago. October cattle were 2.35 cents lower at 140.60 cents/pound Friday, while December cattle were 0.47 cents lower at 144.70. October feeder cattle were 3.55 cents lower at 195.10 cents/pound while January feeders lost 2.95 at 187.35.
Lean hog futures fell again Friday marking the sixth straight day of declines for the protein. Cash hogs values were .10 cents higher to 66.52 cent/pound, as buyer interests slows down, post-Holiday. Aside from a possible uptick during October for national hog month, hogs will approach the season of higher supply and lower demand. This Saturday’s kill, to make up for lost slaughter on Labor Day, is estimated to be 305,000 head, compared to 63,000 over the three-day weekend. The lean hog index lost another 1.14% sliding to 73.08 continuing the cash market breakdown. The October contract dipped below the 100-day moving average by .5 cents, suggesting it may move toward the 50-day average of 65.543 and find support level. October hog futures lost 1.02 cents at 67.32 cents/pound Friday, while Dec hogs fell .67 to 62.65 and May fell 0.67 cents to 75.52.
Cotton futures began the week higher Monday despite Chinese stocks closing lower, perhaps on month-end positioning. The tighter than expected balance sheet for cotton and the drop in the condition rating have given cotton bulls something to talk about as of late but world market problems are now the driver. While the global scene for cotton is largely still plagued by oversupply, the recent bullish data appears to be giving way to world economic and currency struggles, particularly related to Chinese demand fears. December cotton futures lost .13 cents to 63.13 cents/pound Friday, while Mar rose 0.17 cents to 62.85.