The grain and oilseed markets were mixed to start the fourth quarter on the heels of the Grain Stocks report yesterday. Corn ending stocks fell in line with expectations with USDA reporting stocks within 5-10 million bushels of the average estimate. The trade will now look to the Oct 9th WASDE for yields and harvested acres. The NOAA 6 to 10 day weather outlook show average Midwest temps but probabilities of above average rainfall, possibly causing harvest delays. Still, a near-record corn crop is the expectation, limiting near-term gains. December corn futures dropped 1 cent to $3.8675/bushel early morning Thursday, while March lost 1.5 cents to $3.9725.
The Oilseed complex traded mixed overnight with beans and oil higher and meal lower. Soybeans were firmer on follow-through buying after the USDA revised 2014/15 ending stocks to 191.4 million bushels from 210 in the Sep WASDE. NASS will unveil its first-ever crush report this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. CDT. The report, called the Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report, will augment the NOPA crush report and may be a market mover if sizeable revisions are made to crush. Export sales data, due out this morning, will help assess the state of global soybean bean demand. November soybeans moved higher 1.5 cents to $8.935/bushel Thursday, while October soyoil gained 0.41 cents to 27.51 cents/pound and October meal lost $2.3 to $306.0/ton.
The wheat complex was lower overnight as the macro markets are weighing commodities to start the week. STATS Canada will issue their all-wheat stocks report Thursday with trade estimates falling to 6.5 million tonnes, down 37% from a year ago. The trade awaits the release of export inspections data released mid-morning Monday as well the September WASDE due out a week from this Friday. September CBOT wheat futures lost 3 cents to $4.74/bushel early Monday, while Sep KC wheat fell 1.25 cents to $4.565/bushel, and September MWE dropped 0.5 cents to $4.90.
Wednesday was another limit-down day for nearby CME live cattle as wholesale and cash beef prices continue to slide, in efforts to work through the supply bottleneck. Cattle futures traders a still searching for a bottom but record-heavy cattle in feedlots are still not cleaned up yet. Cattle slaughter so far this week is at 333,000 head, compared to 336,000 head last week and 346,000 head this time last year. October cattle dropped 4.5 cents lower to 124.67 cent/pound at the close Wednesday, while February cattle closed 2.25 cents lower to 133.27 cents/pound. October feeder cattle fell 3.05 cents to 178.17 cents/pound while January feeders dropped 4.2 cents to 167.27 cents/pound.
Nearby CME lean hogs rallied Wednesday for the fifth straight session on stronger wholesale prices and an uptick in retail buying. The deferred months weakened as the late fall/winter season traditionally represents the time of the highest supply and lowest demand for hogs. Supermarkets continue to buy as they finalize purchases for the month of October: National Pork Month. The rise in nearby hogs may also be due in part to end-of-quarter/month short-covering. October hog futures gained 0.10 cents at 73.52 cents/pound Wednesday, while December hogs lost 0.50 to 66.72.
Cotton futures began the week higher Monday despite Chinese stocks closing lower, perhaps on month-end positioning. The tighter than expected balance sheet for cotton and the drop in the condition rating have given cotton bulls something to talk about as of late but world market problems are now the driver. While the global scene for cotton is largely still plagued by oversupply, the recent bullish data appears to be giving way to world economic and currency struggles, particularly related to Chinese demand fears. December cotton futures lost .13 cents to 63.13 cents/pound Friday,while Mar rose 0.17 cents to 62.85.