U.S. corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected 196 million bushels lower this month following reductions in estimated production and carryin. A 2.4-bushel-per-acre drop in the estimated national average yield reduces 2014 production by 192 million bushels, despite a slight increase in area harvested for corn. Lower projected ending stocks and prices reported to date support a 15-cent increase in the projected 2014/15 farm price range midpoint to $3.65 per bushel.
The projected 2014/15 sorghum farm price range is up 30 cents at the midpoint to $3.80 per bushel supported by surging exports. The marketing year average sorghum farm price last rose above that for corn in 2006/2007. For the 2014/15 marketing year, exports are projected to utilize fully 58 percent of total sorghum supplies, the largest share on record back to 1975/76.
Global coarse grain production for 2014/15 is projected down 3.0 million tons this month to 1,272.3 million. The decline in U.S. corn production drives the reduced global forecast and offsets gains projected for coarse grain production in the EU, corn production in India, and barley production in Ethiopia.
World Coarse Grain Production Cut by U.S. Estimates
Global coarse grain production in 2014/15 is projected down 3.0 million tons this month to 1,272.3 million. Reduced estimated U.S. production drives the decline, with foreign production forecast up 1.3 million tons to 895.2 million. Foreign corn production is projected up 1.4 million tons to 627.0 million, mostly due to improved prospects for India.
India’s 2014/15 corn production is increased 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million because area planted to winter, dry season corn (rabi) is larger than expected. Most of India’s corn is grown during the kharif season of monsoon rains, but late rains reduced that crop. With reduced kharif production, corn prices in India have remained stronger than in other exporting countries. These corn prices and corn’s yield potential have made corn a viable competitor for irrigated land during the rabi season. Total corn area is raised 5 percent this month to 9.0 million hectares.
EU 2014/15 coarse grain production is raised 0.4 million tons to 168.1 million, due to revisions to estimated production published by several countries. Most of the increase is for corn, up 0.4 million tons to 74.0 million. While France trimmed reported corn area and reduced reported production, that was more than offset by increased yields reported for Spain, Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Changes to reported production for other coarse grains are mostly offsetting with increases for mixed grain, barley, and sorghum but reductions for oats and rye.
Ethiopia’s 2014/15 barley production prospects are increased 0.3 million tons to 2.1 million as area planted is reported higher. However, Brazil’s sorghum area for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 are reduced, reflecting Ministry of Agriculture data, with 2013/14 production cut 0.5 million tons to 1.9 million and 2014/15 prospects trimmed 0.4 million to 2.0 million.