The grain markets traded mixed Monday ahead of the USDA Stocks and Acreage reports tomorrow. After the trade had seen significant weather premiums in the last few weeks, if seemed as profit taking and long liquidation was the theme today. The average trade estimate for June 1, 2015 stocks is 4.557 billion bushels with a range of 4.35-4.7 billion bushels. The June 1, 2014 stocks number was 3.852 billion bushels. The weekly export inspections came in at 1.04 million tonnes, suggesting firmness in demand. The average estimate for corn acreage is 89.13 million acres compared 89.2 million acres reports in the USDA’s March Planting Intentions report. July corn futures lost 1.75 cents to $3.8325/bushel at the close Monday, while December was up .25 cents to $4.0225.
The soy complex traded neutral-lower Monday. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the soybean crop rating to lower 2%, which would make this the third straight week of declining ratings. The soybean crop condition rating estimate is 63% good to excellent. The average trade estimate for the June 1 stocks is 679 million bushels, compared to 405 last year. The average estimate for soybean acreage is 85.33 million acres compared the 84.64 million acres the USDA projected in March. July soybeans lost .5 cents to $10.025/bushel at the close Monday morning, while July soyoil edged lower .17 cents to 33.01 cents/pound, and July meal climbed $.6 to $341.9/ton.
Wheat futures rallied Monday on worsening conditions for soft red winter wheat and the delayed winter wheat harvest. Today’s rise marks wheat’s highest levels in nearly six months on concerns the effects of flooding could diminish the U.S. wheat supply. Chicago wheat futures are up nearly 10% in the last three trading days alone. The average trade estimate for June 1 wheat stocks is 712 million bushels compared to 590 million last June. The all-wheat estimate for acreage is 55.7 million acres, compare to 55.37 in March. While the U.S. faces wetter than normal conditions, dry conditions in Canada and the EU are raising concerns. July CBOT wheat futures gained 18.25 cents to $5.8025/bushel Monday, while July KC wheat advanced 12.5 cents to $5.7175/bushel, and July MWE climbed 8.25 cents to $6.0525.
Live cattle futures traded higher Monday after dropping last week. Last week’s sell off might have encouraged traders to cover their short positions ahead of month-end. Fundamentals still suggest weakness in demand and thereby weaker prices for the livestock complex. Beef cutouts fell last Friday after gaining substantially in recent weeks to capture pre-July 4th margins. August cattle futures rose 1.425 cents to 149.95 cents/pound at the close Monday, while December futures climbed 1.15 cents to 153.37. Meanwhile, August feeder cattle futures rose 1.95 cents to 219.20 cents/pound, and November feeders gained 1.90 cents to 215.05.
Lean hog futures were mixed Monday after they firmed up on Friday ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report. The numbers from Friday were reportedly bearish for nearby contracts and bullish for latter futures months. Larger supplies of hogs in the 120 to 179 and 180 and over ranges could keep pressure on the nearby. Kept for breeding numbers may be supportive in the deferred months. The trade expects that farrowing will ease in coming months thereby tightening some supply and firming latter month futures prices which would explain today’s triple digit gains. August hog futures slid .825 cents to 74.625 cents/pound Monday, while December gained 2.00 cents to 63.22.