As anyone who has been watching the weather and the markets has seen, the shifting forecast has caused a change in direction.
“The longest bull run in soybeans in 43 years—but this week wasn’t too pretty,” said Tyne Morgan on U.S. Farm Report. “Is it over?”
The answer for now from Ted Seifried of Zaner Ag Hedge: “I don’t know if it’s quite over yet, but we’re certainly running into a bit of volatility,” thanks to the latest NOAA extended outlook for normal precipitation. “We’re taking a little bit of that weather premium back for now, looking at those forecasts.”
A stronger dollar, particularly as the European Union faces the possibility of a British exit, didn’t help the markets either.
But the bulls could return if those weather forecasts change yet again, according to Seifried.
The situation this spring reminds some of years past.
“I was trying to find a year when we had similar money flow patterns, and this really followed 2009,” said Brian Splitt of Allendale. “Both this year and 2009, soybeans bottomed on March 2, and the March contract in 2009 bottomed at $8.43 a bushel—this year was $8.49, so that’s almost the same price. The market rallied into the March quarterly stocks and planting intention report, consolidated in mid-April, made an aggressive surge higher in May into the May WASDE report, and so looking back at 2009, soybeans topped the session after the June WASDE report.”
What happened with prices then? “$10.99 and half was the June high in 2009 on November beans, which was down to $8.81 and a quarter by July 8,” Splitt said. “There could be a money flow out of the market, and it may not be because of weather—it could be because of bigger picture things going on.”
Another factor that can’t be ignored: USDA’s upcoming June 30 Acreage report, which already is generating plenty of opinions.
Splitt says he’s in the camp of analysts who predicts a rise in soybean acres. “I think it’s going to be in the vicinity of 84 million acres,” which represents a jump of 2.2 million acres over the March report, according to Splitt.
Would an updated figure of 84 million acres hurt soybean prices? “I think if you get 84 (million acres) or above, it’s definitely something the market is going to pay very close attention to,” says Matt Bennett of Bennett Consulting. “I personally felt they were a little rich on corn acres at the end of March, because that (survey) was taken as of March 1, and soybeans did nothing but rally in the month of March before people started planting.”
Seifried counts himself in the group that expects higher corn acres. “Corn acres are tough to peg because we lost some acres in the Delta from the wet weather we had,” he says. “But everywhere else we were continuing to plant corn aggressively.”
As a result, Seifried forecasts 94 million acres of corn and 84 million acres of soybeans. “I don’t think that’s really overwhelmingly bullish for the corn market, but it really comes down to the yield and it comes down to what weather we’re going to see going forward especially in July.”
U.S. Farm Report Marketing Roundtable: Is the Soybean Rally Over?