Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 251000

Long Term: Up Change: -16000

Overnight Trade: Z -11 @7:30 AM

Corn saw large losses in heavy volume in overnight trade. This was the second Sunday night in a row with a gap lower. Expectations are for steady to higher crop condition ratings this afternoon, which will put this year farther above average and closer to last year’s ratings. The Commitment of Traders Report indicated that trading funds were holding a much larger than expected net long position, which means there could be a great deal of pressure from long liquidation now that the market is falling below the 50-day moving average.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 15000

Long Term: Down Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -6 KC: Z -5 @7:30 AM

The December KW held a trend line support for a couple of days, but failed miserably on Friday and then saw follow through selling overnight. Other than last week’s better than expected export sales report and some firming basis levels, there isn’t a lot of positive news to talk about, especially when the corn and beans are under pressure. There should be some support at $5.15 in the December KW, but if that fails we will be looking for a move below $5.00.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 64000

Long Term:Up Change: -8000

Overnight Trade: X -14 @7:30 AM

Like the corn the November soybeans slipped below the 50-day moving average and the 62% retracement of the last move up. The charts look bad and with expectations of steady to higher crop condition ratings there isn’t much reason for strength. As usual the best hope for the bulls is a reduction in acreage at some point, but we don’t know when that may come, if it does.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 20-40 Lower

Live cattle futures closed .35-.65 lower on Friday and off 3.65 for the week in the August contract. On feed report numbers fit into the range of guesses on Friday afternoon, with a slightly negative bias. Inventory figures were a bit larger than expected in most sectors. The combination of heifers retained for beef production and dairy was 9% above a year ago, leaving far fewer for slaughter. The weaker overnight Dollar trade could be supportive as well.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 30-50 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Friday but off 5.50 for the week in the August contract. Corn prices were down .29 for the week and off another .11 in overnight trade. The report may have been slightly negative but should be well offset by the sharp reduction in feed costs.