Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 221000

Long Term: Down Change: -30000

Overnight Trade: Z +1 @7:30 AM

Corn condition ratings improved by 1 point to 70% Good to Excellent, which is 5 points below last year, but 11 points above the 5-year average. If the condition ratings maintain their trend of moving sideways to higher, it is possible that condition ratings will be equal to last year in another 2 weeks. In the meantime, the forecasts are mostly non-threatening and the best hope for the bulls is some hot/dry weather that drops the condition ratings. The December corn is holding support, so far, at the 78% retracement and an uptrend line. It looks like we are in for turnaround Tuesday.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 11000

Long Term: Down Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +6 KC: Z +7 @7:30 AM

The wheat posted a solid rebound overnight, but so far the December KW has been unable to take out yesterday’s high. The market is obviously oversold after this long string of lower highs and lower lows and the market is due for a bounce. However, there isn’t much bullish news right now and it will take some strength in the corn and beans to allow the wheat to move higher. Terminal basis levels are firm, so there must be some demand out there, but we need to see that show up consistently in the export sales report.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 50000

Long Term: Down Change: -14000

Overnight Trade: X +11 @7:30 AM

Crop condition ratings were steady again at 62% Good to Excellent, which helped the market bounce overnight since traders had been looking for an improvement. We are often told that soybeans are a crop of August and August is nearly here so the weather from here forward will be critical. The $9.30 area is an important support level for the November contract. The bulls need that to hold today.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 30-50 Higher

Live cattle futures closed mixed on Monday, with the front two months modestly higher and deferred contracts modestly lower. The bull spreading in this market along with stronger cutouts to start the week could provide a jumpstart to a near term recovery. Early bids and asking prices on the board look stronger. Cash asking prices will start of near $148, with no solid bids available. Stronger overnight equities should provide additional support.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 20-40 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed lower on Monday, in spite of the mixed close in the fats and sharply lower corn values. Concerns over world equity markets and the continued poor closeouts on fed cattle are slowing any cash enthusiasm and weighing on the board price. Corn is modestly higher as we write, but has dropped .68 in the last 11 trading sessions. Improving slaughter totals over coming weeks could provide open pen space and better demand in the salebarns.