Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -111000

Long Term: Down Change: -10000

Overnight Trade: N +1 @7:30 AM

Corn planting came in close to expectations with 19% of the crop planted. That is still behind average, which is 25%, but at the moment expectations are for the crop to be more than half planted after this week. That is leading to speculation that acreage will be creeping up, which is negative to the market. The problem with this scenario is that a fast planting pace just means it is dry and that will have to change if we are going to have a big crop. Nobody is worried about that now, however, and we saw a new low for the move in the July corn overnight and the next major support won’t be found until $3.50.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -92000

Long Term: Down Change: -8000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -1 KC: N -1 @7:30 AM

Wheat crop conditions failed to improve again. US winter wheat is at 42% Good to Excellent and Kansas is still at 26% Good to Excellent. The Kansas Poor to Very Poor did jump to 31%, so the mediocre wheat is getting worse. The charts look horrible with the July KW below $5.00. On the monthly chart our next support is near the $4.50 level.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -49000

Long Term: Down Change: +4000

Overnight Trade: N +9 @7:30 AM

Soybeans were the big winner overnight and the July contract is right back to testing the 50-day moving average resistance. A sale to unknown destinations and talk of more corn acres is helping the market. It still doesn’t seem like the beans should be able to move far with all the bearish rhetoric, but the closer this market gets to $10.00 the more nervous the bears are going to get.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 30-50 Higher

Live cattle futures closed moderately to sharply lower on Monday, but did manage to avoid the limit lower move that many were expecting after Friday's on feed report. Cutouts were narrowly mixed and the Dollar was lower. We look for a quiet cash market, unless someone shows up with higher bids and surprises the market. Open interest was up over 1,000 contracts on the day.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 30-50 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed sharply lower on Monday, with the market still trying to digest the larger than expected March placements. Corn prices are offering support, trading at their lowest levels since mid-October. The cash index was 1.48 higher on Monday, which should provide some stabilization. We are looking for a stronger open on Tuesday.