Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 206000

Long Term: Up Change: -14000

Overnight Trade: Z -5 @7:30 AM

The December corn gapped lower overnight and saw double digit losses at one point in the session, but did manage to regain about half the losses by the end of the session. Traders seem to be content with the current forecasts and expectations are for crop condition ratings to be near steady this afternoon. Steady conditions at this time of year are really pretty good because the normal tendency is to see a slow and steady decline through the last half of the crop year. If the gap lower holds through the day I would look for considerable long liquidation this week.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 25000

Long Term: Up Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -9 KC: Z -10 @7:30 AM

The December KW dropped back below the 50-day moving average overnight and made a new low for the move. The selling pressure seems to be accelerating and it appears that the December KW is headed down to the $5.25 area. The Paris wheat is falling and the trend in the US Dollar is still up, so it is hard to find much supportive news this morning. If the corn is going to trade lower and we aren’t going to see better export sales, it is hard to have much hope for the wheat.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 74000

Long Term:Up Change: Flat

Overnight Trade: X -13 @7:30 AM

The soybeans are in the same boat as the other markets. Trend line support failed on Friday and the November beans made a new low for the move overnight. Traders seem to be happy with the forecasts and although we may see a cut in the acreage estimate at some point, that is a long way down the road and it doesn’t seem to be causing much concern today. $9.88 and $9.70 are the next support levels to look for the in the November contract.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Friday, with most contracts slightly better for the day after scoring new lows for the move. Cash trade was a couple dollars lower in the south, with northern beef market off about $4.00 for the week. Outside markets have the Dollar flat and equities slightly higher as we write. We could see some recovery this week, but boxed beef and drop value continue to struggle.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 20-40 Higher

Feeder cattle futures bounced back to post gains of around a dollar on Friday, with another plunge lower in corn prices adding to the support of premium cash prices. The cash index was up on Friday, closing back above the 223.00 level for the week. There is still more than 8.00 spread between the index and the spot futures price. Corn is off another nickel in overnight trade and remains a supportive factor for the feeders.