Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: -147000

Long Term: Down Change: +8000

Overnight Trade: N +2 @7:30 AM

The corn market was firm yesterday and again overnight thanks in part to a stable Dollar and ever increasing ethanol production. The lower prices seem to be keeping domestic demand very strong and as long as meat prices stay high and gasoline consumption stays strong it looks like there won’t be any trouble on the demand side of the market. Supply is a different concern. The weather is non-threatening and as long as that is the case, rally attempts will be capped.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -83000

Long Term: Down Change: Flat

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -2 KC: N -1 @7:30 AM

Wheat export sales were unimpressive again with only 42,500 MT of old crop and 253,600 MT of new crop sales. This is a dead horse, but the one thing the wheat really needs is some export demand. The HRW won’t be great, but it doesn’t matter if we can’t get it out of the country. The July KW is holding at $5.05, so there is a chance for some short covering as we head into the weekend.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -102000

Long Term: Down Change: Flat

Overnight Trade: N -1 @7:30 AM

Soybean sales were good at 322,400 MT, so we have to plan on an increase in the export estimate in the next supply and demand report. The market is in consolidation mode and correcting the oversold condition by going sideways. If we don’t get a bounce to sell soon, the funds will start selling again anyway. The crop is off to a good start and we are running out of any kind of bullish news.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher

Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Thursday, seeing massive new buying entering the market. Open interest was up a whopping 8,832 contracts on the day, with the front three months posting triple digit gains. Cash trade is yet to develop, with bids no better than $158 in the south and asking prices of at least $163. Cutout values were not supportive for the bull camp, with lower prices and less than stellar demand.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 20-40 Higher

Feeder cattle futures were the big upside winner in the Livestock complex on Thursday, with more than 2.00 gains across the board and the lead August contract gaining 3.52 on the day. Gains are being driven by strong cash trade and a breakout on the daily bar charts that has August trading at its' highest level since the first week of January. Open interest was up more than a thousand contracts for the day, in spite of some modest strength in the corn market.