Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 235000

Long Term: Down Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: Z -6 @7:30 AM

The December corn made a new low for the move overnight reaching the lowest level since June 23rd. The forecasts are mostly non-threating and crop condition ratings are expected to be near steady. Also, despite the recent weakness the trading funds still hold a very large net long position, which means there is still fear of liquidation pressure. On the bright side, at least the market didn’t gap lower again.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -1000

Long Term: Down Change: +2000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -5 KC: Z -7 @7:30 AM

The December KW made yet another lower low and, so far, another lower high. The two good weeks of export sales have only provided temporary support to the wheat and there is still no indication of a bottom in the market. The next best hope for the December contract to find support is at the $5.00 level and that isn’t very far away.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 60000

Long Term: Down Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: X -14 @7:30 AM

The November soybeans also made a new low for the move overnight. Like the corn, the forecasts are nonthreatening and condition ratings are expected to be near steady. A close below $9.28 today would suggest we are in for a move back to the $9.00 level. The recent weakness seems to have attracted demand so it will be interesting to see if we have a good export sales report this week.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: Sharply Higher

Live cattle futures saw sharp gains in the August contract on Friday, with deferred contracts just narrowly mixed. This week should start with a bang, after cash trade improved by $2-$3 on Friday. We saw active trade begin at $147 in the south, with some feedlots turning down as much as $148 late in the day. This market looks ready to bust loose, with feedlots regaining some leverage heading into some of the tightest supplies of the year.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 50-75 Higher

Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Friday but should see more strength on Mondays' open, led by fresh lows in the corn market and a strong start to the live cattle futures. Cash index levels, at 215.95 remains well above the spot futures pricing of 210.72. We expect the spill over strength from the live cattle to be enough to propel this market into at least a 5.00-6.00 recovery.