Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 109000

Long Term: Down Change: Unch

Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM

Yesterday the March corn finished the session at the upper end of the range, but never managed to take out last week’s high. The bulls need to see the resistance taken out quickly to avoid another sell off. So far this month the corn has behaved a lot like the crude oil, so that is the market to watch. The crude is right up against critical resistance as well and new highs in the crude should result in new highs in the corn.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -15000

Long Term: Down Change: Unch

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +3 KC: H +1 @7:30 AM

The wheat failed pretty miserably yesterday and hasn’t done much overnight. Increased hostility in Ukraine and the possibility of a purchase by Egypt haven’t been enough to keep the market moving higher. Perhaps confirmation of a purchase by Egypt will be enough ammunition for the bulls to get the March KW up to the $6.00 level.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -17000

Long Term: Down Change: +7000

Overnight Trade: H -2 @7:30 AM

The soybeans were the big winner yesterday. The March contract finally made it through the $10.00 level and the market is now testing the resistance at the 50-day moving average. It still seems like this rally is a selling opportunity since export sales will dry up eventually, but the momentum of the market is clearly up at this point at traders are probably eyeing a move to $10.20.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed 1.40-2.50 Lower on Tuesday, rejecting early strength and testing trendline support in the April contract. Cutout values were higher on Tuesday but need to maintain strength over several days to make the market a believer. Friday's on feed report is expected to show record low placements for January, with most expecting at least a 10% drop from a year ago. Our show list was smaller overall, with no carryover. So many cattle are being sold on basis contracts early in the week that we don't see in daily cash trade. Maybe as many as 70-80% of the weekly showlists in Kansas.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures saw more than 2.00 losses in the front four months on Tuesday and are once again 10.00 discount to the current cash index. Corn was modestly higher on Tuesday but appears to be giving that premium back in overnight trade. We are expecting some improvement in prices heading into Friday’s placement number.