Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 253000

Long Term: Up Change: Unch

Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM

The corn market is consolidating. The market ended up being flat yesterday and slightly weaker overnight. Technical indicators are overbought and the market seems to have run out of upward momentum. The bulls need to see some kind of announcement from the Chinese regarding GMO restrictions on corn to send the market higher. The $4.25 area still looks like a viable upside target in the March contract, but it will take something besides just strength in the wheat to get it there.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 18000

Long Term:Up Change: +6000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +9 KC: H +7 @7:30 AM

The wheat market is still on fire, but the Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts are still lagging the Chicago and Paris contracts. It’s old news, but what the market needs is some good export sales. In the meantime, fear of a collapse in the Russian economy and declining Brazilian production are supporting the wheat. It also helps that we have some pressure in the Dollar to make our wheat a little more attractive.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 38000

Long Term:Up Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: H -10 @7:30 AM

The soybeans are still trading sideways. We don’t have any fresh news to speak of and traders seem to be marking time until we either see another round of Chinese buying or we get to the January supply and demand report. For the moment traders don’t seem willing to chase the market in either direction. Go with a breakout it we ever get one.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 30-50 Lower

Live cattle futures closed anywhere from modestly to sharply lower on Monday, with most of the pressure in the Summer months and beyond. Cutout values were higher to start the week on better movement and overall showlists appear to be down a few percent. The liquidation over the past month has been significant but the close in the February below the 100 day moving average could continue to pressure the market. A continuation of better demand and beef prices is needed to turn the current bearish trend.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 200-300 Lower

Feeder cattle futures closed limit lower for the 3rd day in a row and could reach the 62% retracement of their move from August lows to the all-time highs posted in early October. Cash index levels actually rose .58 on Monday and is nearly 15.00 premium to the spot month futures contract. Weaker overnight corn prices and this deficit to cash may be enough to actually create trade in the futures market this morning. Outside influences are mixed, with equities and the Dollar weaker.

Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 253000

Long Term: Up Change: Unch

Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM

The corn market is consolidating. The market ended up being flat yesterday and slightly weaker overnight. Technical indicators are overbought and the market seems to have run out of upward momentum. The bulls need to see some kind of announcement from the Chinese regarding GMO restrictions on corn to send the market higher. The $4.25 area still looks like a viable upside target in the March contract, but it will take something besides just strength in the wheat to get it there.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 18000

Long Term:Up Change: +6000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +9 KC: H +7 @7:30 AM

The wheat market is still on fire, but the Kansas City and Minneapolis contracts are still lagging the Chicago and Paris contracts. It’s old news, but what the market needs is some good export sales. In the meantime, fear of a collapse in the Russian economy and declining Brazilian production are supporting the wheat. It also helps that we have some pressure in the Dollar to make our wheat a little more attractive.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 38000

Long Term:Up Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: H -10 @7:30 AM

The soybeans are still trading sideways. We don’t have any fresh news to speak of and traders seem to be marking time until we either see another round of Chinese buying or we get to the January supply and demand report. For the moment traders don’t seem willing to chase the market in either direction. Go with a breakout it

we ever get one.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 30-50 Lower

Live cattle futures closed anywhere from modestly to sharply lower on Monday, with most of the pressure in the Summer months and beyond. Cutout values were higher to start the week on better movement and overall showlists appear to be down a few percent. The liquidation over the past month has been significant but the close in the February below the 100 day moving average could continue to pressure the market. A continuation of better demand and beef prices is needed to turn the current bearish trend.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 200-300 Lower

Feeder cattle futures closed limit lower for the 3rd day in a row and could reach the 62% retracement of their move from August lows to the all-time highs posted in early October. Cash index levels actually rose .58 on Monday and is nearly 15.00 premium to the spot month futures contract. Weaker overnight corn prices and this deficit to cash may be enough to actually create trade in the futures market this morning. Outside influences are mixed, with equities and the Dollar weaker.

 

The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services and other sources believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. All statements contained herein are current opinions which are subject to change. The risk of loss in trading commodity future contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.