Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 161000

Long Term: Down Change: +16000

Overnight Trade: Z +2 @7:30 AM

The corn failed to build on yesterday’s gains and was weaker overnight. There is still a strong likelihood that the market goes back to test Wednesday’s low at some point, which has the potential bulls nervous. At the same time there seems to be quite a bit of doubt regarding USDA’s yield estimate and it doesn’t look like we will see sustained pressure in the corn until traders get a better handle on this year’s yield. The Pro Farmer crop tour is next week and that should help.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -10000

Long Term: Down Change: +6000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z +5 KC: Z +4 @7:30 AM

The December KW nearly got back all of Wednesday’s losses. Basis levels are firming again and it doesn’t look like the December KW wants to stay below $5.00. Going forward, the wheat has a chance to gain on the corn, especially if the export sales stay decent. Look for a move back to $5.15 soon.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – December Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 50000

Long Term: Down Change: +11000

Overnight Trade: X -1 @7:30 AM

The soybeans are very volatile right now. Like the corn there is quite a bit of doubt regarding USDA’s yield estimate, but if they are correct then we have the potential for much lower prices. The Pro Farmer tour should shed some light on the issue, and, of course, the forecasts for the next couple of weeks will be very important. Large production would be less of a bearish force if we had better export sales, but right now China isn’t nearly as aggressive as they have been in recent years.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 10-30 Higher

Live cattle futures reversed some early weakness to close with strong gains on Thursday, led by 1.25 up in the active October contract. Cash trade was limited to modest sales in the north of $240 in the beef, which is a couple higher than a week ago. Feedlots would appear to have the upper hand going into another week of 11th hour sales. Outside influences look mixed, with the Dollar and equities running lower overnight.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed narrowly mixed on Thursday and seem to be stuck in that type of mode near term. Cash index levels were off .14 for the day, but remain more than 2.50 premium to the spot August contract. Overnight corn values are down 3 cents or so and could give back a good deal of Thursday's recovery effort.