Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 2000

Long Term: Down Change: -14000

Overnight Trade: N +2 @7:30 AM

Yesterday the July corn fell below the January low and reached the 62% retracement of the move up from the harvest low to the December high. Technical indicators are oversold, but can stay that way for a long time. Another new low for the move today will keep the bears in control of this market. The bulls will need some supportive information from today ethanol production figure and tomorrow’s export sales report.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -62000

Long Term: Down Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N +2 KC: N +1 @7:30 AM

The July KW stalled out at the 50-day moving average and then gave up most of Monday’s gains. The drop in KS wheat condition ratings wasn’t enough to keep the market supported. Traders will keep a close eye on this week’s rain chances in the HRW Belt. Poor totals will result in lower condition ratings again on Monday. The Drought Monitor doesn’t look as bad as it did last year, but we will need rain to keep the conditions from getting worse.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -30000

Long Term: Down Change: -8000

Overnight Trade: N +6 @7:30 AM

The July soybeans reached the lowest level since mid-October, but did post a decent bounce overnight. We have a double bottom on the chart and an oversold market, so some sort of corrective pop should be in the works. At this point there is no reason to expect a change in trend and rallies are likely selling opportunities. At some point we will probably see a closer test of the harvest low.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed moderately higher in the front three months on Tuesday, supported by strength in the choice cuts and the discount to cash. Cash trade appears unlikely this early in the week, with bids $2-$3 lower and asking prices that much higher. Intermediate trends remain higher, which should find support on any breaks. February placements are expected to recover from recent slow months in Friday's report. The Feds will release their views on the economy after 1pm this afternoon.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed near unchanged on Tuesday, with lower cash index more than offsetting the sharply lower corn trade. Cash index levels could continue to trade in a pretty tight range, with a slightly lower bias over the coming week. Estimates for Friday's on feed report should be released today. Technicals remain supportive but appear more tentative than a week ago.