Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 19000

Long Term: Down Change: -14000

Overnight Trade: N -1 @7:30 AM

Overnight the July corn fell to the lowest level since February 3rd. The market has been under pressure since failing at the 50-day moving average last week. The Dollar is weak this morning, but that doesn’t seem to be helping many markets and with the charts beginning to look more bearish, it will take more than just a correction in the Dollar to attract some buying interest. The $3.81 area is the next major support and a test of that this week is likely.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -64000

Long Term: Down Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N Unch KC: N -1 @7:30 AM

It will be interesting to see how crop condition ratings respond to the recent warm weather. Much of the HRW crop is rated “Fair,” but it probably won’t stay there. The Drought Monitor shows that we aren’t as bad off as last year, but we are still in a drought, so we could have some supply concerns this year. However, we do have to keep in mind that supply doesn’t matter if we don’t have better demand.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -19000

Long Term: Down Change: -8000

Overnight Trade: N -2 @7:30 AM

The July beans made another new low for the move overnight and the market is closing in on the January low. Some technical indicators are getting oversold, but they can stay that way for a long time. If the January low of $9.67 fails, then the next downside target will become $9.35. It will take some big export sales to avoid further pressure.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with April giving up 1.52 for the day and finishing .30 lower for the week. Cash trade ended up disappointing for the week, with no better than steady money spent on what appears to be limited trade. Cutout values were sharply lower on Friday, creating additional weight on packer margins. Outside markets are supportive, with the Dollar lower and equities rising.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with May off 2.20 to lead the decline. For the week, feeders gained 2.50 in the April contract, with corn giving up 6 cents over the same period. Cash index levels were up nearly 6.00 for the week but dropped .31 on Friday. Overnight corn prices are trending lower in spite of the weaker Dollar. We should see some additional strength in the index to start the week, putting March back into a discount with less than two weeks to trade.