Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: 112000

Long Term: Down Change: -3000

Overnight Trade: H unch @7:30 AM

The corn market is drifting sideways. The cut in ending stocks hasn’t helped the market, but perhaps today’s old crop export sales figure of 1 MMT will. Sales have been good enough that we should expect to see an increase in the export estimate in the March report. We could find ourselves in a situation with ending stocks below 1.8 billion and a cut in acreage, which is supportive to the market. The bulls still need the March corn to clear the 50-day moving average at $3.93 before they get too excited.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -26000

Long Term: Down Change: +3000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H -1 KC: H -2 @7:30 AM

Wheat export sales were decent at 409,300 MT. That still isn’t a big enough number to get the speculators excited, but at least it isn’t bearish. The most interesting thing about the wheat market right now is the spread trade. The March Chicago wheat is above the May and the March KW is closing in on the May. It is odd to see bull spreading in a bear market. Perhaps supplies are tighter than USDA has suggested.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Up Net Long Futures and Options: -25000

Long Term: Down Change: +5000

Overnight Trade: H +1 @7:30 AM

Soybean export sales were good at 745,400 MT. The bears keep thinking that sales will stop soon, but we keep seeing big numbers. The market is still sideways and it still looks to me like rallies should be sold because it doesn’t matter how big sales are, we won’t be able draw stocks down to an uncomfortable level. Sell rallies.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 20-40 Higher

Live cattle futures rejected early strength to close moderately to sharply lower on Wednesday. The rise in open interest suggests that new sellers were entering the market. The spot February contract tried to lead the market higher, but weakness in the deferred contracts drug the Feb more than 1.00 off of its' early highs. Strength in the afternoon cutout values could give the market a lift this morning, along with producers holding to their higher cash offerings.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures closed sharply lower on Wednesday, with settlements between 3.00-4.35 lower on the session. The selloff came in the face of another solid gain in the cash index, leaving the March futures more than 11.00 discount to the current cash index. Corn prices were moderately higher on Wednesday and are holding those gains overnight, but remain well below weekly highs and key resistance levels. Outside markets are supportive, with the Dollar lower and equities higher.