Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term: Down Change:

Overnight Trade: N -2 @7:30 AM

The corn made a new low for the move overnight and the market is getting closer to the March low. This afternoon we will see planting progress figures and those numbers may shake the bears confidence a bit if it looks like there is a greater threat of shifting corn acres to beans. The crude oil is up and nearing last week’s high, which should be supportive today, but the Dollar is up as well, which won’t help.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term:Up Change:

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -14 KC: N -16 @7:30 AM

Wheat was under heavy pressure overnight apparently due to the threat of rain in the HRW Belt. The Dollar strength probably added to the selling enthusiasm and the Russians may drop their export duty, so there are a few reasons for the selling. Rain over the past week was certainly disappointing and crop condition ratings will be lower this afternoon. Look for wheat to drop out of the Fair category and into the Poor to Very Poor.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options:

Long Term: Down Change:

Overnight Trade: N +1 @7:30 AM

The beans made new multi-month lows last week, but seem to be in consolidation mode right now. With the corn and wheat under pressure the beans are probably benefiting from some spread trade. Technical indicators are oversold, so the market is due for some kind of correction anyway. For the moment it appears that rallies are a selling opportunity and that will be the case unless there is a weather problem during the growing season.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: 30-50 Lower

Live cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with spot April limit lower at the bell. The weakness in the futures market dropped cash bids a good $3-$4 below week ago levels, with most of the southern cash trading at $163 and the northern beef market averaging around $260. The weakness might be attributed to the 285 point weekly gain in the US Dollar, or just the continued slow pace of this spring's slaughter effort. Cutout values were higher for the week, suggesting much stronger packer margins as we start the new week.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: 30-50 Lower

Feeder cattle futures imploded on Friday, with most contracts at or nearly 4.00 lower for the day. The huge decline in the futures market leaves April more than 7.00 discount to the current cash index. For the week May futures were off 7.75, as spec longs exited the market and new hedge business arrived. Overnight corn futures are off a couple of cents, which may provide modest support.