Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 183000

Long Term: Down Change: +7000

Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM

The corn market continues to trade in a directionless manner. We don’t have much fresh news to work with. Demand has been very strong, which is supportive, but we are still dealing with large stocks and the threat of a large cut in acreage seems to be fading away. The 40 and 50-day moving averages, along with trend line resistance, still lie above the market and there is a good chance that the market trades sideways into those resistance levels over time.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -4000

Long Term: Down Change: -2000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H Unch KC: H Unch @7:30 AM

Since failing at critical resistance last week, the wheat market has been working lower. The market was relatively quiet overnight and there isn’t much fresh news. Export sales were decent last week, but many traders have their eyes on the Dollar and wondering how much higher it will go. The 9-day moving average lies at $5.71 in the March contract and the first step of any turn around will be to move through that resistance.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -12000

Long Term: Down Change: -3000

Overnight Trade: H -3 @7:30 AM

Bullish news is hard to come by in the bean complex. Export sales cancellations, a strong Dollar, and progressing S. American harvest are all negative factors for the beans. The chart looks bearish too and the next major support for the March contract is near $9.20. The best hope for the bulls is that technical indicators are over sold, but they can stay that way for a long time.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed limit lower on Friday in the front three trading months. For the week, April was off 4.15 and remains double digit discount to the current cash market. The on feed report had a friendly surprise, with December placements 8% lower than year ago levels, which was lower than any of the estimates. We should see some leveling out of the currency markets after last weeks' explosion in the Dollar. Super Bowl Sunday is usually a good clearance day for the meats. Packers should be a little short on inventory and their margins have improved dramatically.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures joined the fats, with limit lower closes to all but the January contract on Friday. For the week March futures were off 3.00, with 4.50 coming on Friday. The lower than expected placement number should be supportive but not a total surprise, as producers may have held off sales for tax purposes after such a strong 2014. Overnight corn prices are down 2-3 cents, after finishing near unchanged for the past week.