Trends – March Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 177000

Long Term: Down Change: -6000

Overnight Trade: H +1 @7:30 AM

The corn is content to trade sideways and mark time. The overnight trade was quiet and the market lacks fresh news. Traders are waiting for the ethanol production report and the export sales report to get an indication of whether or not we are maintaining our strong demand pace. Stocks are still large and the threat of lower acreage is diminishing, so it is demand that has to keep the market supported.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -9000

Long Term: Down Change: -5000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H Unch KC: H -1 @7:30 AM

The March KW made yet another new low for the move overnight. The Dollar is down at the moment, but so is the Paris Milling Wheat, so there is still not a great reason to be a buyer. The market is oversold, but can stay that way for ages. We need some good demand news to give the bears an excuse to take profits. There is weekly and monthly chart support at $5.50, but after that there is nothing until $4.50.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -7000

Long Term: Down Change: +5000

Overnight Trade: H +1 @7:30 AM

The beans posted some decent gains yesterday and reached the 9-day resistance overnight. The market is due for a bounce, but any strength will turn out to be a selling opportunity. Early yields in Brazil are excellent and there is more talk of Chinese cancellations, which makes it hard to make a bullish case. Sell rallies if we get them.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures started the week with plenty of volatility, with nearly a 5.00 trading range from low to high on the day. While most contracts settled lower on the day, they were well off of session lows and may have reduced some of the bearish sentiment in this market. On the bearish side, cutout values continue to work lower and southern offerings appear to be larger than a week ago. Northern show lists look smaller and retail sales look to pick up with end of the month paychecks just a few days away. The Dollar is softer overnight.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 30-50 Lower

Feeder cattle futures saw even wider swings than the fats, with March trading in an 8.50 range for the day. Cash trade in country sales appeared to be significantly lower and could continue to keep a thumb on futures prices. We look for volatility to remain high, while daily trading limits will be reduced to the 4.50 level for the day. Cash index levels are still retreating at a high rate, but remain well above futures pricing.