Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 12000

Long Term: Down Change: Flat

Overnight Trade: N +1 @7:30 AM

The corn numbers were a little less bearish than expected with ending stocks only increasing by 50 million thanks to a cut in feed usage. So far the July corn is holding at last week’s lows and it is doubtful that traders will want to pressure the corn much more as we head into planting season. Technical indicators are beginning to get oversold and a bounce heading into the weekend is likely.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -65000

Long Term:Up Change: -4000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: N -1 KC: N -2 @7:30 AM

The wheat saw quite a bit of pressure yesterday even though the ending stocks estimate ended up being lower. The July KW is still holding above the 50-day moving average and above the March 26th low, although trend line support did fail. We have chances for rain this weekend, but expected accumulation is low. Crop condition ratings will be lower on Monday.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – July Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -54000

Long Term: Down Change: -9000

Overnight Trade: N +1 @7:30 AM

Overnight the July beans made a new low for the move and reached the lowest level since mid-October. Yesterday’s 15 million bushel reduction in ending stocks was expected, so it didn’t do anything to support the market. The bigger issue is still the expected increase in acreage this spring and it didn’t help that yesterday’s export sales number was terrible. Look for a little bit of consolidation in the market. Rallies are for selling.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures closed well off of session highs but did manage modest gains across the board. Cash trade remains untested in most areas, with asking prices of $170 in the south and $270 up north. Continued Dollar strength overnight is retesting the 100.00 level and could weigh on commodities in general. The strong Dollar has definitely increased beef imports and put a bit of a lid on the export market. The discount to cash continues to look too wide.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Up

Long Term: Up

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures settle mostly higher on Thursday but well off of daily highs posted early in the session. The cash index was up .05 for the day and at 221.00, remains a 4.50 premium to the spot April futures. Corn futures were quiet overnight, with less than 2 cent trading range on both sides of unchanged. Deferred live cattle have held value well enough to keep Summer feeders supported with corn at these price levels.