Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 209000

Long Term: Down Change: -9000

Overnight Trade: H +6 @7:30 AM

Corn export sales were solid at 818,800 MT. When paired with 274,500 MT of grain sorghum, it looks pretty good. The March corn held just above the $3.75 support yesterday and then bounced overnight. Indicators are certainly oversold and a bounce is warranted, but it will take a close above $4.00 in the March contract to get traders concerned about a change in trend.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -9000

Long Term: Down Change: -6000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +7 KC: H +9 @7:30 AM

Wheat also bounced overnight and got back yesterday’s losses. The problem is that export sales were poor at 284,800 MT for the old crop, which is pretty poor and the wheat is only slightly higher, so that won’t provide much support either. The market is overdue for a correction, so one can hope for a bounce back to $6.00 in the March KW to relieve the oversold condition.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 27000

Long Term: Down Change: +6000

Overnight Trade: H +8 @7:30 AM

Soybean export sales were great at 1.13 MMT for the old crop. China is still an active buyer and the recent price break will keep them looking at US beans. The market is still stuck inside the sideways trading channel and yesterday’s good recovery and the follow through overnight suggest that we are going to stay in the sideways range for quite a while longer.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 10-30 Lower

Live cattle futures closed at their lowest levels since late August on Wednesday, with liquidation seen as the biggest player in this market. Open interest dropped more than 5,000 contracts on the day, with the December lows being taken out into the afternoon electronic trade. Cash remains mostly quiet in the south, with feedlots holding to asking prices well above the early week movement in the north. Outside market influences could be supportive this morning, with energies, metals and grains all rallying as the Dollar retreats. Boxed beef price is nearing all-time record highs after another big jump on Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle futures settled weaker on Wednesday, as weaker live cattle overshadowed corn weakness this week and the huge disconnect between cash and futures. Corn prices are rebounding 6 cents as we write, which could hinder rebound efforts in the feeders. We see the fat market as the big key to the future of the feeders, with feeders needing to get cheaper or summer fats higher in order for margins to come close to working. Maybe both!