Corn Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term:Down Net Long Futures and Options: 206000

Long Term: Down Change: Unch

Overnight Trade: H +3 @7:30 AM

At the moment, the March corn has a double bottom at $3.76. That makes $3.76 our critical support and yesterday’s high of $3.88 our critical resistance. That being said, it looks like there is a good chance we end up seeing a directionless consolidation session, with perhaps an upward bias. The market is oversold and heading into a three day weekend, which is probably a good time for the selling to take a pause a for the shorts to take some profit.

Wheat Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: -12000

Long Term: Down Change: -3000

Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +3 KC: H +6 @7:30 AM

Wheat was firm overnight, but we have seen that before. We need to see a positive close for a change to give any sort of hope for a turnaround in this market. The market is clearly oversold after this big break, but the Dollar keeps moving higher and export sales aren’t improving so there isn’t incentive to be a buyer.

Soybeans Estimated Fund Position

Trends – March Contract

Short Term: Down Net Long Futures and Options: 17000

Long Term: Down Change: -10000

Overnight Trade: H Unch @7:30 AM

Yesterday the March soybeans ended up falling below the critical support of $9.91. The outside day down coupled with the major support failure looks ugly on the chart. We have large stocks and the bears are hoping that the big export sales are done for the year, which would put an end to the speculative buying. Trading funds aren’t even net short yet, so there could be quite a bit of selling ahead of us.

Live Cattle

Trend

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Calls: 30-50 Lower

Live cattle futures continued to work lower on Thursday, with outside market activity and fear continuing to control market activity more than existing fundamentals. Cash trade in the south got underway, with most trade posted at $164, down $6.00 from week ago levels. The lead February contract is off nearly 6.50 for the week, in spite of starting the week 10.00 discount to the cash. Cutout values were mixed on Thursday but remain significantly higher for the week. We will likely see more fallout from the Swiss move away from the euro, with at least two funds closing their doors since the move.

Feeder Cattle

Trends

Short Term: Down

Long Term: Down

Opening Call: 100-200 Lower

Feeder cattle futures continued to implode on Thursday, closing limit lower in the front two months on the day. Continued weakness is expected on the open, with limits expanded to 6.75 today. Corn is trying to work a little higher this morning, with 3-4 cent gains. Cash index levels were off 2.90 on Thursday, with the single day average down in the 222's. Futures continue to keep the basis wide, with March trading 205.60 and off 7.00 for the week. Weaker equities and a stronger Dollar are usually not a combination for success in the meats.