U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected lower with a reduction in corn production more than offsetting an increase in sorghum. Harvested area for corn is increased slightly, but the national average yield is estimated 2.4 bushel per acre lower at 171.0 bushels per acre. Corn production is estimated 191 million bushels lower. Yield and production, however, both remain records. Sorghum production is raised 25 million bushels with increases estimated for both harvested area and yield.
Total projected corn use for 2014/15 is reduced 75 million bushels with lower feed and residual use only partly offset by an increase in corn used for ethanol production. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels with the smaller crop and reflecting September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels mostly offsetting a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol.
Corn ending stocks are projected 121 million bushels lower. The projected range for the seasonaverage corn farm price is raised 15 cents on each end to $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel. Other 2014/15 U.S. feed grain changes reflect the continued strong pace of sorghum export sales and shipments to China and changes in feed and residual disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are raised 40 million bushels.
Domestic sorghum use is lowered 10 million bushels with a reduction in food, seed, and industrial use partly offset by higher feed and residual use. Barley feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels based on June-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks. The sorghum farm price range is raised 30 cents on each end to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel and higher than the projected corn price because of the large share of use coming from exports this year.
The barley farm price range is raised 10 cents at the midpoint to $5.00 to $5.50 per bushel based on higherthan-expected prices for feed barley reported to date. The oats farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.10 to $3.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 3.7 million tons lower as a result of this month’s reduction in the U.S. corn crop. Foreign coarse grain supplies are raised slightly with higher corn production for India and EU and higher barley production for Ethiopia.
India corn production is raised 1.0 million tons with higher-than-expected plantings reported for its winter crop. EU corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher production reported for Spain, Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Offsetting these increases is a 0.4-million-ton reduction for Brazil sorghum with lower expected area.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is reduced slightly as lower domestic use in the United States is mostly offset by higher corn use for Ethiopia, EU, India, and Canada. Sorghum consumption is raised for China, but lowered for Brazil and Japan. Barley consumption is raised slightly with increases for Ethiopia and Iran.
Global coarse grain exports are up 1.3 million tons with most of the increase for sorghum. Sorghum exports are raised for the United States and imports are raised for China but lowered for Japan. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Kazakhstan with imports raised for Iran and Tunisia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 3.3 million tons mostly on lower projected corn stocks in the United States. Corn ending stocks are also lowered for Argentina with an increase this month in 2013/14 exports.