Lower forecast corn use for ethanol in 2014/15 is more than offset by increased feed and residual use and exports, tightening projected carryout by 50 million bushels. The tighter expected carryout nudges the projected farm price up 5 cents to $3.70 per bushel at the midpoint of the projected range. Changes to ethanol production reflect the recently released data on corn use in ethanol production in the new Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report but are partly offset by higher-than-expected December ethanol production and stronger-than-expected weekly production through February.
Forecast corn exports are raised 50 million bushels on the pace of recent sales and shipments as well as increased projected world corn trade this month. Global 2014/15 coarse grain production and beginning stocks are forecast lower this month, with reduced supplies of corn in South Africa. World consumption is projected higher, resulting in a significant reduction in ending stocks. While global coarse grain stocks are down month-to-month, they remain the largest in 15 years.
Coarse Grains and Wheat Feed and Residual Use Up Slightly
Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2014/15 are forecast down slightly this month due to reduced barley imports. Feed grain disappearance is projected up 1.3 million tons to 366.2 million, with reduced corn use for ethanol more than offset by increased feed and residual use and increased exports. Ending stocks are 1.4 million tons lower at 47.9 million.
Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat converted to a SeptemberAugust marketing year is forecast 1.3 million tons higher to 144.1 million tons. The entire change was attributable to corn as sorghum, barley, oats, and wheat remained steady. Grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) are forecast at 91.87 million units, 0.02 higher than the February forecast of 92.85 million and 1.96 million units higher than in 2013/14. Of the GCAU components, cattle on feed, layers, broilers, and turkeys increased slightly. Projected 2013/14 feed and residual use per animal unit is 1.55 tons this month, incrementally higher than in February.