The total meat production forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are little changed from last month due to largely offsetting changes in red meat and poultry.
Beef production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered on slower expected marketings from feedlots into early 2016. However, the slower pace of slaughter is partly offset by higher expected carcass weights.
Beef imports for 2015 are reduced to reflect the pace of trade to date; the forecast for 2016 is unchanged. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand remains relatively weak; no change is made to 2016.
Cattle and hog prices for 2015 and 2016 are unchanged from last month.
Pork production is lowered for 2015 on a slower expected pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights during the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2016 is unchanged.
Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged, but small adjustments are made to third-quarter 2015 to reflect September trade data.
Broiler production is forecast higher for both 2015 and 2016. September production was higher than expected, and hatchery data points to higher production into early 2016. Turkey production in September was also higher than expected, which boosted 2015 production, although no change was made to the forecast quarters.
Broiler exports for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month as the pace of export recovery has been slower than expected.
Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 as large broiler meat supplies are expected to continue to pressure markets. Turkey prices are unchanged for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced slightly.
Source: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, November 2015