U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected higher with increases for corn, barley, and oats, only partly offset by a reduction for sorghum. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 50 million bushels with a reduction in expected feed and residual use reflecting December-February disappearance as indicated by March 1 stocks.
Barley feed and residual use is lowered 5 million bushels, also on indications from March 1 stocks. Oats stocks are projected higher with a 3-million-bushel increase in imports based on the pace of trade to date. The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.55 to $3.85 per bushel.
A number of significant changes are made this month to the 2014/15 U.S. sorghum balance sheet to accommodate the continuing strong demand from China. Domestic sorghum use is lowered 41 million tons with decreases projected for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use and for feed and residual disappearance. FSI use is lowered 16 million bushels reflecting use for ethanol production to date from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report which indicated that use for ethanol dropped to zero in February. Feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower.
Projected exports are raised 50 million bushels based on the continued strong pace of shipments and large outstanding sales. Ending stocks are expected 9 million bushels lower. The seasonaverage sorghum farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.15 per bushel, up 10 cents at the midpoint of the range and 30 cents higher than the corn farm price.
U.S. sorghum feed and residual use for 2014/15 is projected at 85 million bushels, despite indicated feed and residual disappearance for the first half of the marketing year (SeptemberFebruary) of 154 million bushels. Early harvested 2015-crop sorghum, particularly from Texas, is expected to augment 2014/15 marketing year supplies and support exports at 350 million bushels during the 2014/15 marketing year that ends August 31. The Prospective Plantings report indicated that Texas producers intend to increase sorghum plantings by 20 percent for 2015.
Last year, more than 80 percent of the Texas sorghum crop was mature by mid-August. These additional supplies, exported before the September 1 start of the new marketing year, push feed and residual use during the second half of 2014/15 (March-August) well into negative territory. These supplies will also boost first-quarter (September-November) feed and residual disappearance in the 2015/16 marketing year, as in 2014/15.
NOTE: For additional information on this month’s sorghum changes see the April 13 Feed Outlook available from the Economic Research Service at www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/corn.aspx.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.2 million tons higher with much of the increase reflecting higher sorghum and millet output in Sudan. There are a number of smaller changes to corn, sorghum, and millet production in several other countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsewhere, corn production is raised for Serbia, Mexico, and Argentina, up 0.9 million tons, 0.8 million tons, and 0.5 million tons, respectively. The change for Serbia is based on the latest government revisions for the crop that was grown last summer.
Heavy fall rains delayed harvesting and the final tally for that crop. Production is raised for Mexico reflecting the latest government statistics for the crop grown last summer. Increased area, exceptional winter rains, and plentiful supplies of irrigation water support prospects for the winter crop that was planted in the final months of 2014. The increase for Argentina is based on early harvest results that suggest very good yields in early planted corn and abundant soil moisture for the later planted corn now in grain fill. In addition to last month’s reduction of 2.0 million tons, the South Africa corn crop is lowered an additional 0.2 million tons based on further analysis of weather and satellite imagery.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised slightly, mostly on higher sorghum and millet food use for Sudan. China sorghum feed use is also raised, up 1.5 million tons with higher expected sorghum imports from the United States. Indonesia corn feeding is raised 0.4 million tons, more than offsetting a decrease in FSI use.
Lower domestic use of corn, sorghum, and barley in the United States offset much of these increases. Global corn trade is raised for 2014/15 with imports higher for Indonesia, China, Iran, Algeria, Peru, and Colombia. Partly offsetting is a reduction in imports for Mexico with the larger crop. Corn exports are raised for Argentina and Serbia, but lowered for South Africa.
Global coarse grain ending stocks are higher with corn stocks projected up 3.2 million tons mostly on increases for the United States, Indonesia, and China. RICE: U.S. all rice 2014/15 supply and use changes result in a 1.5 million cwt increase in ending stocks to 42.4 million, up 33 percent from the previous year. Long-grain ending stocks are increased 0.5 million to 27.6 million, and combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are increased 1.0 million to 12.5 million.
All rice imports are raised 0.5 million (all in long-grain) to 23.5 million as imports from Thailand were strong in February according to the U.S. Census Bureau trade data. No other changes are made on the supply side. Total 2014/15 all rice use is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 234.0 million—all in combined medium- and short-grain rice. All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 129.0 million with long-grain and combined mediumand short-grain each reduced 1.0 million to 98.0 million and 31.0 million, respectively.
Partially offsetting the decrease in domestic and residual use is a 1.0 million cwt increase in all rice exports to 105.0 million (all in long-grain) as exports increased recently to Western Hemisphere markets. Long-grain exports are forecast at 73.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain exports at 32.0 million. The decrease in 2014/15 all rice domestic and residual use is based primarily on total use implied from USDA’s Rice Stocks report on March 31. USDA’s March 1 rice stocks were higher than expected and above trade expectations.
All rice March 1 stocks totaled 120.8 million cwt (roughequivalent basis), up 24 percent from the previous year, and the highest since 2011. Implied all rice domestic and residual use for December-February 2014/15 was down 8 percent from the previous market year, and 5 percent below the previous 4-year average. The 2014/15 long-grain season-average price at the midpoint is projected at $12.30 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt from a month ago and down $3.10 per cwt from last year.
The all combined medium- and short-grain season-average price at the midpoint is forecast at $18.60 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt from last month, but 60 cents per cwt below a year ago. The California medium- and short-grain rice price is raised slightly from last month and the Other States price is unchanged.
The all rice price at the midpoint is projected at $14.20 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt from last month, and $2.10 per cwt below 2013/14. Global 2014/15 rice ending stocks are increased 0.9 million tons as the decrease in use adds to a slight increase in supplies. Global consumption (includes residual) is lowered nearly 0.65 million tons as projected use is lowered for Indonesia, Japan, and the United States, partially offset by increases for Pakistan and Thailand.
Total rice supplies in 2014/15 are increased 0.3 million tons due to an increase in beginning stocks (+0.6 million) more than offsetting a reduction in production (-0.3 million). The rise in global beginning stocks is due primarily to increases for Japan, Pakistan, and Taiwan. The reduction in global 2014/15 rice production results mainly from decreases for Indonesia, Vietnam, and Sub-Saharan Africa, partially offset by an increase for Pakistan. Global rice exports for 2014/15 are lowered slightly due to reductions for Egypt, Japan, and Pakistan, partially offset by increases for Brazil, and the United States. Imports are lowered slightly for SubSaharan Africa and the Middle East, but raised for the United States.'
Source: USDA, WASDE, April 9, 2015