U.S. feed grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected to slightly exceed the record level of 2014/15 as larger beginning stocks more than offset lower expected production. Corn production is projected at 13.6 billion bushels, down 586 million from the record 2014/15 crop with a lower forecast area and yield.
The U.S. corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from the 2014/15 record based on a weather adjusted yield trend that assumes normal summer weather. The 2015 yield outlook is not raised, despite the rapid pace of late-April and early-May planting, as more than 90 percent of the variability in the corn yield is determined by July precipitation and temperatures in the Midwest, which are unknowable at this time. Corn supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up just slightly from 2014/15.
U.S. corn use for 2015/16 is projected at a record 13.8 billion bushels, 1 percent higher than this month’s revised projection for 2014/15. Feed and residual use for 2015/16 is projected 50 million bushels higher with animal numbers up from 2014/15.
Corn used to produce ethanol in 2015/16 is expected to be unchanged as projected gasoline consumption during the 2015/16 marketing year is nearly identical to 2014/15. Corn use in other food, seed, and industrial categories in 2015/16 is projected slightly higher than this month’s lower forecast for 2014/15.
Exports for 2015/16 are projected 75 million bushels higher on the year with the 2014/15 projection raised 25 million bushels this month. More competitive prices and growth in world demand support gains in U.S. exports for 2015/16, but large foreign supplies limit growth in the U.S. share of global trade.
Corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, down 105 million from the 2014/15 projection. The season-average 2015/16 farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint from this month’s lowered outlook for 2014/15. Forward pricing the 2015 crop have been at substantially lower levels than similar bids offered for the 2014 crop.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected at a record 1,505.1 million tons, up 9.6 million tons from 2014/15 with the increase mainly reflecting larger corn beginning stocks and production for China. Global corn production for 2015/16 is projected at 989.8 million tons, down from the 2014/15 record, largely reflecting the smaller projected U.S. crop.
Declines in 2015/16 corn production are also expected for EU, Brazil, Ukraine, and Mexico. In addition to China, where corn production is projected up 12.3 million tons, corn production is expected higher for South Africa, India, Canada, Russia, and Argentina.
Global corn consumption for 2015/16 is projected at a record 990.4 million tons, 13.0 million tons higher than in 2014/15, with notable increases for China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Egypt, Canada, India, Indonesia, Iran, and Mexico. Corn imports for 2015/16 are projected higher year-to-year for EU, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Korea, and Mexico.
Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine, Brazil, and EU, but raised for South Africa, Argentina, and India compared with 2014/15. Global corn ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 191.9 million tons, down 0.6 million from 2014/15.