CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 2 to 5 higher.
-November soybeans called 8 to 12 higher.
-December CBOT wheat called 5 to 10 higher.
US dollar is down 60 at 76.40. The dollar broke to new lows for this downtrend. November crude is up $1.32 at $71.25. Dow futures are up 57 points.
-Federal Reserve holds its two day meeting on monetary policy today and Wednesday. Results will be out Wednesday afternoon.
-The Redbook Retail Sales Index will be out at 755 AM this morning. This report covers department and chain store activity.
-This morning reports on both home prices, from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and a manufacturing survey will be released.
-The market may be watching this week’s G20 summit in Pittsburg closely. They are apparently trying to provide a framework to regulate the global economy.
The French would also like to discuss changes in currencies which may come at a later date.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-Cooler temps will build for late next weekend. At this point most forecasters suggest it will not bring a crop threatening frost. Off and on rains and mild temps are the rule now.
Grain Market Influences:
Crop progress, out yesterday afternoon, dropped the corn and soybean good to excellent rating by 1% for both. Winter wheat planting was estimated 24% complete which is right on the 25% complete five year average pace.
Corn summary… Another small setback occurred today as trade was once again given a forecast that was frost free until early October. This is the type of forecast that meteorologists have sided with recently. As we just talked about in our marketing meeting today, the total concern over potential lost bushels decreases rapidly moving into October.
China saw only 744,400 tonnes of corn sold at its weekly auction. The previous week 1.321 million tonnes had been sold. Also of interest, the amount the government offered increased to 3.193 million tonnes. The previous week 3.173 million tonnes had been offered.
Romania estimates its corn production will be 8 million tonnes. That is on par with last year. It is also an increase from its previous 6 to 7 mmt estimate.
Taiwan purchased 23,000 tonnes of US corn and 12,000 tonnes of US soybeans overnight.
Soybean summary… This market saw a similar reason for setting back as the corn based on a continued reduced risk of frost for September. To add onto that fact, the soybean export inspections came in at a very low level as well.
Soybean rust has been detected in three counties of Missouri. Earlier this week Illinois officials noted they were expecting it in the southern part of the state.
Wheat summary… This market has reached our downside targets however corn has not. This leaves potential to move lower from these levels yet. There was a small bounce attempted this morning and about the only thought mentioned was “where can we sell this?” There are still no good reasons to think about buying this market.
One Ukraine based analyst suggests the country is 35% complete in its plantings of winter grains.
Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!
-Wholesale beef closes up $.22 for choice and up $.32 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes up $.89.
-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.
October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 40 higher.
----Chart support 50.75 and resistance 54.50
October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.
Livestock Market Influences:
Average guesses for Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report will be out tomorrow likely. Allendale will release its estimates this morning.
Lean hogs summary… A second day of weaker cash hog pricing was seen today. Futures started out lower on that cash hog concern and talk from cash hog buyers that numbers were plentiful. It is hard to see this market being able to hold the $52 lean hog price as slaughters continue to rise each week into November/early December.
Live cattle summary… In the last few days we have picked up on commentary from retail-oriented stock analysts who question the consumer’s appetite for “premium” products like beef. Their argument is valid. In this recession-recovery we may not see consumers go back to spending on non-essentials as quickly as other recessions.