CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 2 to 5 lower.
-November soybeans called 5 to 10 lower.
-December CBOT wheat called steady to 3 lower.
US dollar is up 13 at 76.42. November crude is down $.35 at $68.62. Dow futures are down 1 point.
-Weekly jobless benefit claims will be released this morning.
-The Department of Energy’s EIA report indicated an increase in crude stocks of 2.8 million bushels. There are concerns about demand.
-Federal Reserve announced yesterday afternoon they would leave short term interest rates unchanged.
-The trade will be watching the G20 meeting in Pittsburg closely. This two day meeting starts today
-National Association of Realtors will report on home sales during August.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-No significant change in the forecast. Weathermen are downplaying the severity of potential frost for next week. Off and on rains and mild temps are the rule.
Grain Market Influences:
Weekly export sales are viewed as neutral to corn and wheat and bullish for soybeans and soy products.
Corn summary… Right from the start we saw initial support for corn but from an unexpected source…the wheat. Wheat started the morning bouncing higher and it looked as though corn was happy following along at first.
Philippines are looking to sell up to 150,000 tonnes of corn this coming year.
Soybean summary… For the most part, the beans were just following along with other grains. Even when corn was seeing its early run higher, the beans maintained over 10 lower. It looks like larger speculators who have been short the beans were reluctant to give up as beans only saw small moves higher throughout the day. It wasn’t until the close when some of these short positions may have given up and finally bought back causing beans to close higher on the day.
Monthly Census Bureau crush report indicates August soybean crush was 119.838 million bushels. Anything over 117 million bushels is more than USDA’s old crop marketing year hopes. The trade was expecting 118.9 million bushels.
Rain over Brazil’s largest soybean state, Mato Grosso, have run 30% ahead of normal so far in September. That is seen keeping farmer plans for a big crop on schedule.
Paraguay is expected to produce 7 mmt of soybeans in 2009/10. That would be up sharply from only 3.9 mmt last year.
Wheat summary… A spark of buying threw many for a loop this morning. Chicago December wheat once again tested the recent lows of 450 this morning and speculative buying came in shortly after. It is buying with risk not far away, just being under that 450 low.
USDA CCC purchased 15,000 tonnes of Hard Red Winter wheat for donation to Uganda.
The Ukraine harvest has been estimated at 85% complete.
Pakistan has harvested a large 24 mmt crop this year. That is up from last year’s 21 mmt estimate as well as the government’s previous forecast for this crop at 21.8 mmt.
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-Wholesale beef closes down $.29 for choice and up $.02 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $1.76.
-Cash hogs are called steady to 50 lower.
October Lean Hogs are called 20 to 40 lower.
----Chart support 50.75 and resistance 54.50
October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 85.00 and resistance 87.40.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called 10 to 20 higher.
----Chart support 96.15 and resistance 100.10.
Livestock Market Influences:
Lean hogs summary… Futures grabbed a hold of yesterday’s Cold Storage news and ran with it. On the charts the move looked strong. For news, the reason this run sounds exciting is that stocks of pork came in lower than expected. The market automatically assumes that means exports were stronger. That is one problem the pork industry has with USDA data.
Live cattle summary… Cattle futures managed a solid rally that started on a lower open and ended on a strong note just off the high by the close. On the charts, today looked impressive. You could also argue this was the significant low we have been looking for.