Corn                                           Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Up                           Net Long Futures and Options: -16801
Overnight Trade: Z -4 1/2           Change: +6000
Opening Calls: 3-5 Lower

Yesterday the December corn closed above the 50-day moving average for the 3rd time in 7 trading days. The corn is beginning to act like a change in trend is at hand, but there was no follow through strength overnight, which will disappoint the bulls, and export sales were poor at 673,300 MT. Export sales have to be better than this, especially with the high yield expectations that many traders have. Look for two sided trade again today. A positive close will be yet another indication that the trend is turning up.

Wheat                                      Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                    Net Long Futures and Options: -68939
Long Term: Down                    Change: +2000
Overnight Trade: Chicago: Z -3/4 KC: Z +1 3/4
Opening Calls: 1-2 Lower

The wheat has posted an outside day higher 3 of the past 9 trading days. So far that has not meant anything. There has been no follow through buying and the wheat is still range bound. However, one must also look at the fact that wheat fundamentals are bearish, yet the wheat has not started another leg down. I am not bullish, but I am getting uncomfortable with short positions. Export sales were adequate at 506,900 MT.

Soybeans                               Estimated Fund Position
Trends
Short Term: Down                Net Long Futures and Options: 9899
Long Term: Down                 Change: +1000
Overnight Trade: X -7 1/2
Opening Calls: 5-7 Lower

Soybean export sales were outstanding at 1.15 MMT. Demand is still great, but harvest is upon us, which is keeping the market in check. The bean market keeps recovering from early losses, which is bothersome to the bears. A positive close today will have technical traders thinking the beans have made a low.

Live Cattle
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed

Live cattle futures surged higher on Wednesday, supported by better cash prospects and new speculative open interest. The jump of 1468 contracts in open interest on gains of a dollar or more should support a follow through effort. The 20 day moving average in the October contract rests just above the market. This resistance level of 86.60 will key today’s technical action, with a push above signaling a test of long term resistance near 88.30. Cash trade could start developing today if packers become more aggressive. Otherwise it looks like business will drag into late on Friday.

Feeder Cattle
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Call: Mixed

Feeder cattle got a boost from the live pit on Wednesday, with short covering a feature in spite of strong gains in the corn market. Cash index levels fell .19 to 97.07, but could see a boost after yesterday’s futures trade. Overnight corn values backed off 4 cents, as cold temps appear to be moderating once again. The combination of weaker corn and higher live cattle should promote solid buying in the feeder pit.