CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 2 to 5 lower.
-November soybeans called 20 to 30 lower.
-December CBOT wheat called 2 to 5 lower.
US dollar is down 13 at 78.52. October crude is down $1.54 at $71.20. Dow futures are down 31 points.
-Institute for Supply Manufacturing will release its August manufacturing data on Tuesday. The trade expects a 50.1 reading from 48.9 for July.
-Monthly jobs report will be released on Friday. The trade expects a 220,000 job loss for August. That would down from July levels which posted a 247,000 decline.
-National Association for Business Economists released its biannual survey. It indicated 70% of economists surveyed thought the Fed’s interest rate policy was right. That reading in March was 63%. One year ago it was 56%.
-S & P 500 may post its best August since 2000 with a 4% return.
-Trading volume in all markets could be limited this week due to the Labor Day holiday.
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-No frost threats for the next two weeks. Dry weather will be seen this week.
Grain Market Influences:
Today is First Notice Day for September grains.
Corn summary… It is hard to saying anything other than for the most part corn was following the beans. There was talk that on Sunday/Monday morning lows in the northern growing areas could hit as low as 34 degrees. That is currently expected to cause only leaf damage with no impact on yield. What we saw on the close was corn having a mind of its own and buying in the final few minutes to end just above unchanged. Those could be last minute buy orders which are looking for the market to rally Monday if we see these low temps or even lower over the weekend.
US Department of Energy reports June ethanol production was 20.822 million barrels. That was stronger than expected and a 19% increase from June of last year. The recent pace has only been a 12%-14% increase. We are running ahead of USDA’s implied pace.
Soybean summary… Monday is the first notice day for September futures but this morning saw active trading as many aligned their positions where they need to be before the weekend instead of waiting for Monday. Other support for September is coming from expectations of continued bean sales, some of which being old crop working that already tight stocks number even lower. India came in this morning with a purchase of 60,000 tonnes of US beans adding some additional help to the November.
Wheat summary… After the recent surge a couple days ago, this market looks once again on a down trend much as it has been on. This new down trend has more volatility to it but the fact remains that we continue to make lower lows each day. Most mornings provide this market with some fundamental bullish news causing an initial push higher but then the market looks at the large world stocks and just can’t hold on to a rally for very long.
A grain producer out of Germany, publicly listed KTG, indicates it will hold from selling newly harvested grain until November at least. This it part of a plan to avoid low prices.
Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!
-Wholesale beef closes down $.16 for choice and down $.46 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $.67.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
October Lean Hogs are called 40 to 70 higher.
----Chart support 46.500 and resistance 51.20
October Live Cattle futures called 10 to 20 lower.
----Chart support 86.20 and resistance 89.75.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called steady to 10 lower.
----Chart support 96.65 and resistance 101.50.
Livestock Market Influences:
Today is the Last Trading Day for August Live Cattle.
Lean hogs summary… This week’s rally in wholesale pork prices was a big $4.78 through Thursday afternoon. That was almost entirely due to a tremendous rally in ham prices. We noted on Monday or so, in our commentary, that one large packer was picking up export demand. We have become accustomed to getting suspicious of moves like this that are based on only one cut rallying. This afternoon the pork cutout fell 67 cents.
Live cattle summary… This week has been a frustrating one for the cattle trade. On the one hand we now have three solid weeks of rallying cash cattle ($81 to $85). The market has gotten the message that we are now transitioning from big summer slaughters and are now looking at the downward sloping end of the supply graph. On the other hand October futures fell $1.90 and December fell $1.05 this week. One thing we mentioned this week is the perception of futures holding too high of a premium to cash.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: