CBOT Grain Futures Calls:
-December corn called 1 to 3 lower.
-November soybeans called 1 to 4 lower.
-December CBOT wheat called 1 to 3 lower.
US dollar is down 13 at 78.39. October crude is up $.64 at $68.60. Dow futures are up 32 points.
-All economic reports, except employment, have shown improvement. That’s why there is so much emphasize on this mornings report.
-Monthly job loss number will be out this morning. The trade expects 225,000 losses for the month of August.
-Unemployment rate is expected to increase from 9.4% to 9.5% for the month of August. Most economists expect it to hit 10% before its over.
-President of the Dallas Federal Reserve bank sees a period of slow growth ahead. "We are likely to see a prolonged period of sluggish economic performance and uncomfortably high unemployment as businesses reallocate capital and labor to fit the new economic landscape.”
Go to our homepage, www.allendale-inc.com, to view our latest market update videos, recorded twice a day (before and after the grain market session).
-Latest forecast suggests frosty conditions by September 13 for northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Unless the forecast expands southward, this may not be a market moving event. The shorter term forecast suggests generally dry precip patterns into early next week. Temps will warm back to normal
Grain Market Influences:
*** Allendale releases results of the 20th annual farmer crop survey! The corn yield will move to a record 164.08 from USDA’s August 159.50. Soybean yields will increase to 43.10 from USDA’s August 41.67. More info will be posted on Grain Fundamentals 1 at 830 am. ***
Deliveries posted are as follows…146 contracts for corn (positions through 08/14), 2,077 contracts for soyoil (positions through 09/03), 1,905 contracts for wheat (positions through 09/03), and 1 contracts for oats (positions through 09/02).
Corn summary… Outside market pressure with a higher dollar and lower crude oil put pressure on commodities. One research firm estimated the crop at 162.1 for now and 168 bu/a if the crop is able to finish out. The 162 is what we are currently trading….168 is a 2.500 billion carryout and would bury the market for a long time.
South Korea purchased 55,000 tonnes of corn overnight.
Soybean summary… There are about 6 hedge funds in trouble (WSJ). Some are restricting withdrawal transactions (one is banning) because there has been such a run on hedge fund redemptions that these funds do not have enough money left to meet margin calls. Thus they are liquidating positions – buying the short dollar back and selling out of long commodities.
South Korea purchased 25,000 tonnes of Indian soymeal.
Wheat summary… For a few months we have been talking about an objective of 475. Today we traded within ¼ cent. USDA’s upcoming report should revise the ND spring wheat crop up a little but otherwise, no adjustments. The world stocks situation remains near burdensome and that is the factor the market is reflecting.
Tunisia is seeking 92,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of optional origin durum wheat.
Taiwan passes on a tender to buy 43,800 tonnes of US wheat. They suggested prices were too high.
Contact Allendale to schedule a speaker for your Fall/Winter meetings!
-Wholesale beef closes down $.28 for choice and down $.41 for select.
-Pork carcass cutout closes down $1.14.
-Cash hogs are called steady.
October Lean Hogs are called steady to 20 higher.
----Chart support 46.500 and resistance 51.20
October Live Cattle futures called steady to 20 lower.
----Chart support 86.20 and resistance 89.75.
October Feeder Cattle futures are called steady to 10 lower.
----Chart support 96.65 and resistance 101.50.
Livestock Market Influences:
Lean hogs summary… Hogs managed to push to new highs today for this uptrend. This week’s story can be summed up as, “…despite bad news, this market rallies.” Through this afternoon wholesale pork has lost a good $4.23. The daily changes so far this week are down $.08, down $3.11, up $.10, and down $1.14 this afternoon.
Live cattle summary… Cash cattle sales in Nebraska were reported to us at $130. That was down from last week’s $131 and $132 action in the same area. The general trade is still hoping the live based trading areas will be able to hold the line and trade steady at $85 on Friday. We must point out packer margins could support that steady price, even after seeing wholesale beef decline this week. Currently, the trade is bearish.
CBOT Grain Futures Calls: